KBNA / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 07 · 06:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

58%

56%

38%

19%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.9¢Risks 38.95u

ICONNO 61.1¢Risks 61.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.05u · ICON −61.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-30T07:32:00+00:00	24.6%	11.9%	10.3%	43.1%	18.4%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	24.6%	11.9%	10.3%	43.1%	18.4%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	24.6%	11.9%	10.3%	43.1%	18.4%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	24.6%	11.9%	10.3%	43.1%	18.4%
2026-09-30T10:34:41+00:00	38.7%	11.9%	10.3%	43.1%	18.4%
2026-09-30T11:19:59+00:00	38.7%	14.0%	11.3%	43.1%	18.4%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	38.7%	14.0%	11.3%	43.1%	18.4%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	38.7%	14.0%	11.3%	43.1%	18.4%
2026-09-30T13:35:29+00:00	32.0%	14.0%	11.3%	43.1%	18.4%
2026-09-30T14:23:08+00:00	31.9%	14.0%	11.3%	43.1%	18.6%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	31.9%	14.6%	11.3%	43.1%	18.6%
2026-09-30T15:53:29+00:00	31.9%	14.6%	11.3%	43.1%	18.6%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	31.9%	14.6%	11.3%	43.1%	38.7%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	31.9%	14.6%	7.5%	43.1%	38.7%
2026-09-30T18:09:04+00:00	31.9%	14.6%	7.5%	43.1%	38.7%
2026-09-30T18:54:13+00:00	31.9%	14.6%	7.5%	43.1%	38.7%
2026-09-30T19:39:19+00:00	37.3%	14.6%	7.5%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	37.3%	14.6%	7.5%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-09-30T21:09:38+00:00	37.3%	14.6%	7.5%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-09-30T21:54:44+00:00	37.3%	14.6%	7.5%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00	37.3%	14.6%	7.5%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	37.3%	14.0%	10.9%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-10-01T00:10:15+00:00	37.3%	14.0%	10.9%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	37.3%	14.0%	10.9%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-10-01T01:40:55+00:00	33.9%	14.0%	10.9%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-10-01T02:26:03+00:00	33.9%	14.0%	10.9%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-10-01T03:11:23+00:00	33.9%	14.0%	10.9%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	33.9%	14.0%	10.9%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	33.9%	14.0%	10.9%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-10-01T05:27:14+00:00	33.9%	14.0%	10.5%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	33.9%	14.0%	10.5%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	33.9%	14.0%	10.5%	38.8%	38.7%
2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00	36.7%	14.0%	10.5%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	36.7%	14.0%	10.5%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	36.7%	14.0%	10.5%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00	36.7%	14.0%	10.5%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	36.7%	14.0%	10.5%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T11:29:09+00:00	36.7%	13.1%	7.7%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	36.7%	13.1%	7.7%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	36.7%	13.1%	7.7%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T13:44:45+00:00	36.0%	13.1%	7.7%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00	36.0%	13.1%	7.7%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T15:18:11+00:00	36.0%	13.6%	7.7%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	36.0%	13.6%	7.7%	42.2%	38.7%
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	36.0%	13.6%	7.7%	42.1%	38.7%
2026-10-01T17:33:57+00:00	36.0%	13.6%	7.7%	42.1%	38.7%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	36.0%	13.6%	7.7%	42.1%	38.7%
2026-10-01T19:04:08+00:00	36.0%	13.6%	7.7%	42.1%	38.7%
2026-10-01T19:49:13+00:00	33.2%	13.6%	7.7%	35.6%	38.7%
2026-10-01T20:34:24+00:00	33.2%	13.6%	7.7%	35.6%	38.7%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	33.2%	13.6%	7.7%	35.6%	38.7%
2026-10-01T22:04:40+00:00	33.2%	13.6%	7.7%	35.6%	38.7%
2026-10-01T22:49:47+00:00	33.2%	13.6%	7.7%	35.6%	38.7%
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	33.2%	13.6%	8.0%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	33.2%	13.6%	8.0%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T01:05:07+00:00	33.2%	13.6%	8.0%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T01:50:22+00:00	34.6%	13.6%	8.0%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00	34.6%	13.6%	8.0%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T03:20:55+00:00	34.6%	13.6%	8.0%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	34.6%	13.6%	8.0%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T04:51:30+00:00	34.6%	13.6%	8.0%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T05:36:47+00:00	34.6%	13.6%	31.4%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T06:22:01+00:00	34.6%	13.6%	31.4%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T07:07:11+00:00	34.6%	13.6%	31.4%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	38.8%	13.6%	31.4%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T08:37:31+00:00	38.8%	13.6%	31.4%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T09:22:36+00:00	38.8%	13.6%	31.4%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	38.8%	13.6%	31.4%	35.8%	38.7%
2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	37.9%	27.9%	38.7%
2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	37.9%	27.9%	38.7%
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	37.9%	27.9%	38.7%
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	37.9%	27.9%	38.7%
2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	37.9%	27.9%	38.7%
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	37.3%	27.9%	38.7%
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	37.3%	27.9%	38.7%
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	37.3%	27.9%	38.7%
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	34.5%	27.9%	39.2%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	34.5%	27.9%	39.2%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	34.5%	27.9%	39.2%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00	38.8%	28.4%	34.5%	27.9%	39.2%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00	41.9%	28.4%	34.5%	27.9%	39.2%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	41.9%	28.4%	34.5%	27.9%	39.2%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00	41.9%	28.4%	34.5%	27.9%	39.2%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00	41.9%	28.4%	34.5%	27.9%	39.2%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00	41.9%	29.4%	37.3%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	41.9%	29.4%	37.3%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00	41.9%	29.4%	37.3%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00	41.9%	29.4%	37.3%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	43.5%	29.4%	37.3%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	43.5%	29.4%	37.3%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-03T03:33:06+00:00	43.5%	29.4%	37.3%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00	43.5%	29.4%	37.3%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	43.5%	29.4%	38.2%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	43.5%	29.4%	38.2%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	43.5%	29.4%	38.2%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00	43.5%	29.4%	38.2%	33.9%	39.2%
2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00	49.1%	29.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	49.1%	29.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00	49.1%	29.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	49.1%	29.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00	49.1%	45.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	49.1%	45.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00	49.1%	45.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00	49.1%	45.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T14:09:37+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	38.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	37.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	37.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	37.2%	64.8%	24.9%
2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	37.2%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	37.2%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	37.2%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	37.2%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00	51.7%	45.4%	37.2%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00	51.7%	42.7%	39.3%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	51.7%	42.7%	39.3%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	51.7%	42.7%	39.3%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00	48.3%	42.7%	39.3%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00	48.3%	42.7%	39.3%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00	48.3%	42.7%	39.3%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-04T03:43:01+00:00	48.3%	42.7%	39.3%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	48.3%	42.7%	39.3%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00	48.3%	42.7%	37.2%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00	48.3%	42.7%	37.2%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00	48.3%	42.7%	37.2%	42.1%	26.3%
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	48.2%	42.7%	37.2%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-10-04T08:15:42+00:00	48.2%	42.7%	37.2%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	48.2%	42.7%	37.2%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	48.2%	42.7%	37.2%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	48.2%	42.7%	37.2%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	48.2%	34.3%	38.2%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	48.2%	34.3%	38.2%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	48.2%	34.3%	38.2%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	50.9%	34.3%	38.2%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	50.9%	34.7%	38.3%	39.4%	20.6%
2026-10-04T15:06:52+00:00	50.9%	35.8%	38.3%	39.4%	20.6%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00	50.9%	35.8%	38.3%	39.4%	20.6%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00	50.9%	35.8%	38.3%	39.4%	20.6%
2026-10-04T17:23:01+00:00	50.9%	35.8%	32.8%	39.4%	20.6%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	50.9%	35.8%	32.8%	39.4%	20.6%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00	50.9%	35.8%	32.8%	39.4%	20.6%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	32.8%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	32.8%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	32.8%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	32.8%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	32.8%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	41.7%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	41.7%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	41.7%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	41.7%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	41.7%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	41.7%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	41.7%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	41.7%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	41.7%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	41.7%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00	54.6%	35.8%	41.7%	38.6%	16.5%
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00	55.8%	35.8%	41.7%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00	55.8%	35.8%	41.7%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00	55.8%	35.8%	41.7%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00	55.8%	35.8%	41.7%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00	55.8%	35.8%	41.7%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00	55.8%	51.6%	34.9%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00	55.8%	51.6%	34.9%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00	55.8%	51.6%	34.9%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00	55.8%	51.6%	34.9%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00	55.8%	51.5%	35.0%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00	55.8%	39.5%	35.0%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00	55.8%	39.5%	35.0%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00	55.8%	39.5%	35.0%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00	55.8%	39.5%	28.1%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	55.8%	39.5%	28.1%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00	55.8%	39.5%	28.1%	39.4%	12.3%
2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00	54.8%	39.5%	28.1%	39.4%	8.7%
2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00	54.8%	39.5%	28.1%	39.4%	8.7%
2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00	54.8%	39.5%	28.1%	39.4%	8.7%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	54.8%	39.5%	28.1%	39.4%	8.7%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	54.8%	39.5%	28.1%	39.4%	8.7%
2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00	54.8%	38.1%	27.1%	39.4%	9.2%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	54.8%	38.1%	27.1%	39.4%	9.2%
2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00	54.8%	38.1%	27.1%	39.4%	9.2%
2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00	56.7%	38.1%	27.1%	39.4%	9.2%
2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00	56.7%	38.1%	27.1%	39.4%	9.2%
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00	56.7%	38.1%	27.1%	39.4%	9.2%
2026-10-07T04:20:10+00:00	58.9%	55.8%	18.7%	38.4%	19.0%
2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00	58.9%	55.8%	58.1%	38.4%	19.0%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	58.9%	55.8%	58.1%	38.4%	19.0%
2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00	58.9%	55.8%	58.1%	38.4%	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	86.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	86.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	85.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	84.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	82.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261007-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 30 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗