KBNA / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 07 · 06:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

58%

56%

38%

19%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.9¢Risks 38.95u

ICONNO 61.1¢Risks 61.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.05u · ICON −61.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	7.6%	—	—	10.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	9.6%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	1.5%	21.8%	—	—	17.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	11.2%	4.0%	1.2%	—	16.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	14.4%	21.5%	13.6%	—	13.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	22.8%	15.1%	25.8%	19.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	42.1%	9.7%	—	15.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	30.0%	14.3%	—	4.9%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	12.3%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	15.6%	37.9%	8.3%	—	25.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	24.9%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	15.4%	67.8%	14.4%	—	24.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	19.0%	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	18.3%	77.5%	9.0%	—	17.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	17.0%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	13.4%	71.5%	9.8%	—	18.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	17.6%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	15.5%	65.9%	6.6%	0.0%	24.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	14.1%	62.2%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	10.0%	60.4%	7.6%	0.0%	17.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	15.2%	57.2%	10.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	27.6%	52.5%	11.8%	47.5%	34.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	28.0%	55.1%	10.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	26.2%	52.7%	7.9%	35.6%	22.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	32.5%	48.6%	8.1%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	40.0%	48.5%	13.0%	37.2%	41.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	31.1%	59.0%	9.9%	—	19.2%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	30.3%	59.4%	11.0%	29.0%	19.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	29.5%	45.1%	14.1%	—	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	86.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	86.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	85.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	84.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
ICON	19%	82.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261007-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 30 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗