KBNA / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 09 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

64%

58%

57%

40%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 63.1¢Risks 63.05u

ICONNO 36.9¢Risks 36.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +36.95u · ICON −36.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	1.1%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	23.1%	—	—	11.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	2.5%	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	52.6%	—	48.0%	28.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	65.8%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	68.3%	4.4%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	42.0%	74.0%	3.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	27.7%	69.7%	3.0%	—	35.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	3.6%	65.5%	4.1%	—	31.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	0.3%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	7.7%	57.5%	15.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	1.1%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.7%	72.4%	23.4%	—	26.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	30.2%	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	17.8%	57.3%	11.9%	—	28.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	23.8%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	15.9%	53.9%	3.5%	2.7%	48.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	21.9%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	34.9%	—	18.3%	—	44.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	48.9%	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	55.5%	63.9%	25.5%	77.0%	76.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	27.6%	68.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	60.4%	59.2%	32.0%	59.2%	66.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	82.5%	76.6%	19.9%	—	65.3%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	68.0%	80.1%	30.9%	50.0%	72.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	68.7%	61.5%	37.3%	—	48.7%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	54.0%	66.9%	39.4%	26.2%	36.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	55.6%	21.1%	35.0%	—	35.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	60.1%	35.8%	35.8%	38.6%	42.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	53.0%	12.8%	10.5%	—	20.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	51.6%	29.0%	6.6%	23.8%	11.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	29.5%	30.9%	1.6%	—	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	94%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	89.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
National Blend	82%	88.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	86.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	86.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	86.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	40%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 02 · 13:55 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗