KBNA / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

57%

54%

22%

13%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.6¢Risks 37.60u

ICONNO 62.4¢Risks 62.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.40u · ICON −62.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	0.7%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	8.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	1.7%	—	—	15.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	46.1%	—	41.6%	23.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	59.4%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	61.8%	3.0%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	35.0%	67.7%	2.1%	—	26.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	21.6%	62.7%	1.9%	—	28.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	2.3%	57.9%	2.6%	—	24.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	0.2%	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	5.1%	49.2%	10.8%	—	25.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	0.6%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	23.4%	64.6%	17.2%	—	19.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	22.9%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	12.4%	48.2%	7.9%	—	20.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	17.1%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	10.7%	44.2%	2.0%	1.5%	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	15.2%	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	25.9%	—	12.3%	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	38.5%	77.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	44.5%	53.3%	17.6%	67.9%	66.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	19.0%	57.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	48.8%	47.7%	22.4%	47.7%	55.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	73.7%	66.4%	12.6%	—	53.6%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	56.2%	70.2%	20.8%	37.7%	61.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	56.4%	48.7%	25.9%	—	36.1%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	40.7%	54.0%	27.3%	16.5%	25.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	41.7%	12.4%	23.2%	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	45.7%	23.4%	23.4%	25.6%	29.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	38.1%	6.5%	5.1%	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	36.1%	17.1%	2.9%	13.4%	5.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.0%	18.1%	0.5%	—	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	87.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	87.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	87.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	86.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	83.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	13%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 04 · 15:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗