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KBNA / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
63%
WN2
57%
HRES
54%
AIFS
22%
ICON
13%
Consensus
42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 37.6¢Risks 37.60u
VS
ICONNO 62.4¢Risks 62.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.40u · ICON −62.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-04T15:06:52+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00AIFS Single: 70.6% · 2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00AIFS Single: 70.6% · 2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00AIFS Single: 70.6% · 2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00AIFS Single: 70.6% · 2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00AIFS Single: 70.6% · 2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00AIFS Single: 70.6% · 2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00AIFS Single: 70.6% · 2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00AIFS Single: 70.6% · 2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00AIFS Single: 53.4% · 2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00AIFS Single: 53.4% · 2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00AIFS Single: 53.4% · 2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 53.4% · 2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00AIFS Single: 53.4% · 2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00AIFS Single: 53.4% · 2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00AIFS Single: 53.4% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00AIFS Single: 53.4% · 2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00AIFS Single: 51.7% · 2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00AIFS Single: 51.7% · 2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00AIFS Single: 51.7% · 2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00AIFS Single: 51.7% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00AIFS Single: 51.7% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00AIFS Single: 51.7% · 2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00AIFS Single: 51.7% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00AIFS Single: 51.7% · 2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00AIFS Single: 48.3% · 2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00AIFS Single: 48.3% · 2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00AIFS Single: 48.3% · 2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00AIFS Single: 48.3% · 2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00AIFS Single: 48.3% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00AIFS Single: 48.3% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00AIFS Single: 48.3% · 2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00AIFS Single: 48.3% · 2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00AIFS Single: 52.8% · 2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00AIFS Single: 52.8% · 2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00AIFS Single: 52.8% · 2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00AIFS Single: 52.8% · 2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00AIFS Single: 52.8% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00AIFS Single: 52.8% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 52.8% · 2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00AIFS Single: 52.8% · 2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T15:06:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.7% · 2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.5% · 2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.7% · 2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-04T15:06:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.1% · 2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.7% · 2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.7% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.7% · 2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.7% · 2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.7% · 2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.7% · 2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.7% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.7% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.3% · 2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.1% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.1% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.1% · 2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.1% · 2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.1% · 2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.1% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-04T15:06:52+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00IFS HRES: 54.8% · 2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00IFS HRES: 54.0% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-04T15:06:52+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00ICON: 35.2% · 2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00ICON: 35.2% · 2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00ICON: 35.2% · 2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00ICON: 35.2% · 2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00ICON: 35.2% · 2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00ICON: 35.2% · 2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00ICON: 35.2% · 2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00ICON: 23.0% · 2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:0010-04 15:0610-05 15:1910-06 14:43
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-04T15:06:52+00:0062.0%52.7%50.0%54.8%9.3%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:0062.0%52.7%50.0%54.8%9.3%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:0062.0%52.7%50.0%54.8%9.3%
2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:0062.0%52.7%31.9%54.8%9.3%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:0062.0%52.7%31.9%54.8%9.3%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:0062.0%52.7%31.9%54.8%9.3%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:0075.5%52.7%31.9%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:0075.5%52.7%31.9%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:0075.5%52.7%31.9%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:0075.5%52.7%31.9%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:0075.5%52.7%31.9%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:0075.5%52.7%44.1%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:0075.5%52.7%44.1%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:0075.5%52.7%44.1%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:0069.4%52.7%44.1%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:0069.4%52.7%44.1%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:0069.4%52.7%44.1%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:0069.4%52.7%44.1%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:0069.4%52.7%44.1%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:0069.4%52.7%44.1%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:0069.4%52.7%44.1%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:0069.4%52.7%44.1%47.3%17.2%
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:0070.6%52.7%44.1%54.0%34.4%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:0070.6%52.7%44.1%54.0%34.4%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:0070.6%52.7%44.1%54.0%34.4%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:0070.6%52.7%44.1%54.0%34.4%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:0070.6%52.7%44.1%54.0%34.4%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:0070.6%54.5%50.0%54.0%34.4%
2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:0070.6%54.5%50.0%54.0%34.4%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:0070.6%54.5%50.0%54.0%34.4%
2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:0053.4%54.5%50.0%54.0%34.4%
2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:0053.4%54.4%50.0%54.0%35.2%
2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:0053.4%45.7%50.0%54.0%35.2%
2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:0053.4%45.7%50.0%54.0%35.2%
2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:0053.4%45.7%50.0%54.0%35.2%
2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:0053.4%45.7%27.7%54.0%35.2%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:0053.4%45.7%27.7%54.0%35.2%
2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:0053.4%45.7%27.7%54.0%35.2%
2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:0051.7%45.7%27.7%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:0051.7%45.7%27.7%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:0051.7%45.7%27.7%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:0051.7%45.7%27.7%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:0051.7%45.7%27.7%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:0051.7%45.7%38.3%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:0051.7%45.7%38.3%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:0051.7%45.7%38.3%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:0048.3%45.7%38.3%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:0048.3%45.7%38.3%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:0048.3%45.7%38.3%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:0048.3%45.7%38.3%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:0048.3%45.7%57.5%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:0048.3%45.7%57.5%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:0048.3%45.7%57.5%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:0048.3%45.7%57.5%54.0%23.0%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:0052.8%45.7%57.5%54.0%12.5%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:0052.8%45.7%57.5%54.0%12.5%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:0052.8%45.7%57.5%54.0%12.5%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:0052.8%45.7%57.5%54.0%12.5%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:0052.8%62.6%57.1%54.0%12.5%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:0052.8%62.6%57.1%54.0%12.5%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:0052.8%62.6%57.1%54.0%12.5%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:0052.8%62.6%57.1%54.0%12.5%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:0021.6%62.6%57.1%54.0%12.6%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:0021.6%62.6%57.1%54.0%12.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble63%87.6°F3.4°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 257%87.1°F3.4°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%87.0°F3.9°F2026-10-06 03:00Pending
IFS HRES54%87.0°F5.0°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
National Blend46%86.0°F4.4°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
AIFS Single22%83.1°F4.3°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
ICON13%82.0°F3.9°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 04 · 15:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗