KBNA / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 09 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

24%

21%

12%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 26.1¢Risks 26.05u

ICONNO 74.0¢Risks 73.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.95u · ICON −73.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	0.2%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	9.3%	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	7.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	27.8%	—	24.1%	11.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	39.3%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	40.9%	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	17.5%	46.4%	0.5%	—	11.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	8.7%	40.2%	0.4%	—	12.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	0.5%	34.5%	0.5%	—	10.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	0.0%	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	1.2%	25.8%	3.1%	—	10.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	0.1%	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	8.3%	38.8%	5.4%	—	6.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	7.8%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	3.2%	23.0%	1.8%	—	6.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	4.8%	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	2.4%	19.0%	0.3%	0.2%	15.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	3.8%	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	7.8%	—	2.6%	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	13.8%	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	16.9%	23.0%	4.0%	36.1%	35.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	4.2%	25.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	18.3%	17.5%	5.1%	17.5%	23.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	39.3%	31.4%	2.0%	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	21.7%	34.2%	4.0%	10.6%	25.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	20.9%	15.8%	5.3%	—	9.2%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	10.7%	18.2%	5.3%	2.4%	4.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	10.4%	1.4%	3.7%	—	3.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	11.5%	3.5%	3.5%	4.0%	5.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	7.5%	0.4%	0.3%	—	0.9%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.1%	1.6%	0.1%	1.1%	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	1.6%	0.0%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	44%	89.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
National Blend	30%	88.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	86.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	86.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	86.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	8%	84.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261009-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 02 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗