KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 09 · 14:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

88%

49%

23%

23%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

AIFSNO 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.70u · AIFS −38.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	11.0%	—	—	60.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	82.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	96.4%	—	94.8%	88.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	82.4%	—	—	84.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	78.7%	86.1%	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	87.4%	92.6%	42.3%	—	91.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	45.6%	84.8%	33.7%	—	92.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.6%	91.3%	85.8%	30.9%	—	96.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	69.2%	95.0%	52.4%	—	96.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	59.7%	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	92.6%	63.9%	20.1%	—	97.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	51.7%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	79.2%	99.5%	12.2%	—	97.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	51.8%	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	55.5%	—	38.2%	—	84.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	67.4%	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	67.0%	72.1%	52.9%	88.4%	79.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	51.0%	70.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	65.1%	69.7%	56.1%	—	62.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	86.2%	81.0%	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	77.0%	88.6%	22.1%	—	47.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	85.2%	81.0%	23.1%	—	27.6%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	71.0%	80.1%	21.5%	65.9%	28.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	65.3%	61.9%	53.6%	—	26.3%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	63.4%	57.4%	66.9%	—	34.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	67.5%	52.6%	9.8%	—	28.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	64.4%	60.6%	5.3%	56.7%	12.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	52.8%	63.7%	2.5%	—	6.7%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	58.6%	75.5%	7.3%	44.2%	2.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.8%	7.0%	1.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	3.7%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	86.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	78.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
ICON	49%	74.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	72.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	71.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗