KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

46%

16%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.9¢Risks 50.95u

WN2NO 49.1¢Risks 49.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.05u · WN2 −49.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	19.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	6.6%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	93.2%	—	90.7%	81.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	73.0%	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	67.6%	77.2%	—	—	77.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	78.6%	86.3%	29.2%	—	84.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	31.7%	74.6%	21.5%	—	86.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	83.5%	75.5%	18.9%	—	92.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	54.0%	89.2%	36.7%	—	91.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	43.5%	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	84.8%	47.5%	10.4%	—	92.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	35.0%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	64.6%	98.3%	5.4%	—	93.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	34.2%	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	37.3%	—	22.3%	—	71.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	49.0%	81.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	48.0%	53.9%	33.9%	76.0%	63.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	31.7%	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	44.9%	50.0%	35.9%	—	41.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	71.2%	63.5%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	57.6%	74.5%	9.4%	—	27.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	68.5%	62.2%	9.7%	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	48.8%	60.4%	8.5%	43.0%	12.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	41.6%	38.1%	30.4%	—	10.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	38.9%	33.1%	42.6%	—	15.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	42.3%	28.0%	2.6%	—	10.9%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	38.1%	34.3%	1.1%	30.7%	3.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	26.5%	36.3%	0.4%	—	1.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	30.5%	48.5%	1.5%	19.1%	0.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	1.3%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	88.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	76.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	76.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	72.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	71.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	70.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 08 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗