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KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
ICON
46%
AIFS
16%
HRES
9%
WN2
2%
Consensus
45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 50.9¢Risks 50.95u
VS
WN2NO 49.1¢Risks 49.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.05u · WN2 −49.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-08T15:15:57+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T15:15:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T15:15:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.9% · 2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00IFS HRES: 13.0% · 2026-10-08T15:15:57+00:00IFS HRES: 13.0% · 2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00IFS HRES: 13.0% · 2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00IFS HRES: 13.0% · 2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00IFS HRES: 13.0% · 2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00IFS HRES: 13.0% · 2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-08T15:15:57+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00ICON: 54.5% · 2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00ICON: 45.5% · 2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:0010-08 15:1510-08 21:1710-09 02:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-08T15:15:57+00:0021.1%100.0%9.3%13.0%54.5%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:0021.1%100.0%9.3%13.0%54.5%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:0021.1%100.0%9.3%13.0%54.5%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:0021.1%100.0%9.3%13.0%54.5%
2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:0021.1%100.0%9.3%13.0%54.5%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:0021.1%100.0%9.3%13.0%54.5%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:0014.8%100.0%9.3%8.9%45.5%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:0014.8%100.0%9.3%8.9%45.5%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:0014.8%100.0%9.3%8.9%45.5%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:0014.8%100.0%9.3%8.9%45.5%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:0014.8%100.0%9.3%8.9%45.5%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:0014.8%100.0%1.9%8.9%45.5%
2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:0014.8%100.0%1.9%8.9%45.5%
2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:0014.8%100.0%1.9%8.9%45.5%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:0016.5%100.0%1.9%8.9%45.5%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:0016.5%100.0%1.9%8.9%45.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%88.4°F3.4°F2026-10-08 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%77.0°F3.4°F2026-10-08 14:00Pending
National Blend47%76.0°F6.5°F2026-10-08 06:00Pending
ICON46%76.1°F3.5°F2026-10-08 12:00Pending
AIFS Single16%72.5°F4.1°F2026-10-08 18:00Pending
IFS HRES9%71.0°F4.1°F2026-10-08 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%70.1°F3.1°F2026-10-08 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 08 · 15:15 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗