KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 07 · 15:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

<1%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.0¢Risks 47.05u

WN2NO 53.0¢Risks 52.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.95u · WN2 −52.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	16.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	66.5%	—	60.2%	43.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	31.3%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	23.3%	33.0%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	33.0%	44.4%	3.8%	—	41.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	3.9%	26.6%	1.9%	—	42.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	35.8%	25.8%	1.3%	—	53.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	9.7%	43.6%	4.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.5%	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	33.0%	6.3%	0.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	3.0%	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	12.2%	71.6%	0.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.4%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.6%	—	0.9%	—	14.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.6%	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.0%	5.4%	1.7%	15.9%	8.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.6%	3.5%	1.5%	—	2.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.6%	6.5%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.2%	10.4%	0.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.7%	4.8%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	3.8%	0.0%	1.3%	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.8%	0.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.4%	0.9%	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	88.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	80.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	76.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	73.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-07 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	74.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 05 · 03:55 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗