KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 08 · 10:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

WN2NO 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.80u · WN2 −54.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00	77.5%	60.5%	51.5%	32.9%	45.1%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	77.5%	60.5%	51.5%	32.9%	45.1%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00	77.5%	60.5%	51.5%	32.9%	45.1%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	77.5%	60.5%	51.5%	32.9%	45.1%
2026-10-04T03:43:02+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	61.2%	45.6%	52.5%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	61.2%	45.6%	52.5%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	53.2%	45.6%	52.5%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	53.2%	45.6%	52.5%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00	82.5%	68.6%	53.2%	45.6%	52.5%
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	87.1%	68.6%	53.2%	16.6%	14.2%
2026-10-04T08:15:43+00:00	87.1%	68.6%	53.2%	16.6%	14.2%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	87.1%	68.6%	53.2%	16.6%	14.2%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	87.1%	68.6%	53.2%	16.6%	14.2%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	87.1%	68.6%	53.2%	16.6%	14.2%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	87.1%	69.5%	57.9%	16.6%	14.2%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	87.1%	69.5%	57.9%	16.6%	14.2%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	87.1%	69.5%	57.9%	16.6%	14.2%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	85.5%	69.5%	57.9%	16.6%	14.2%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	85.5%	69.4%	57.9%	16.6%	14.4%
2026-10-07T16:33:13+00:00	0.7%	89.5%	0.1%	4.7%	2.7%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	0.7%	89.5%	0.0%	4.7%	2.7%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	0.7%	89.5%	0.0%	4.7%	2.7%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	0.7%	89.5%	0.0%	4.7%	2.7%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	0.4%	89.5%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	0.4%	89.5%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-07T21:04:44+00:00	0.4%	89.5%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	0.4%	89.5%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	0.4%	89.5%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	0.4%	90.4%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	0.4%	90.4%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00	0.4%	90.4%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-08T03:06:35+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	4.5%	2.2%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	0.1%	1.6%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	0.1%	1.6%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	0.1%	1.6%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	0.1%	1.6%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	0.5%	90.4%	0.0%	0.1%	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	89.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	78.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
ICON	2%	76.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	74.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	72.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 85°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗