KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 08 · 10:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

WN2NO 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +54.80u · WN2 −54.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	60.8%	—	54.2%	37.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	25.9%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	55.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	18.4%	27.1%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	26.9%	37.6%	2.5%	—	34.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	2.6%	21.0%	1.2%	—	35.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	28.9%	20.0%	0.8%	—	46.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	6.7%	35.9%	2.6%	—	42.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.6%	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	25.8%	4.1%	0.2%	—	41.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	1.8%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	8.3%	63.7%	0.0%	—	41.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.5%	—	0.4%	—	9.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.7%	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.3%	3.2%	0.9%	10.7%	5.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	1.9%	0.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.8%	3.8%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.3%	6.2%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.8%	2.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	1.9%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	89.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	78.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
ICON	2%	76.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	74.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	72.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 03 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 85°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗