KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

75%

11%

<1%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 39.0¢Risks 39.00u

AIFSNO 61.0¢Risks 61.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +61.00u · AIFS −61.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	10.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	54.8%	—	48.2%	31.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	21.1%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	14.3%	21.8%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	21.4%	31.1%	1.7%	—	28.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	1.7%	16.1%	0.7%	—	29.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	22.8%	15.1%	0.5%	—	38.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	4.5%	28.8%	1.6%	—	34.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.2%	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	19.5%	2.6%	0.1%	—	33.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	1.0%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	5.4%	55.2%	0.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	—	0.2%	—	6.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.5%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	1.8%	0.4%	6.8%	3.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	1.0%	0.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.3%	2.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	3.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.9%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	89.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	88.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	86.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	79.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	79.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	73.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 03 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗