KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 04 · 14:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

48%

40%

10%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

ICONNO 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.00u · ICON −58.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	48.8%	—	42.2%	26.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	16.8%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	10.8%	17.1%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	16.6%	25.2%	1.1%	—	23.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	1.0%	12.0%	0.4%	—	23.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	17.4%	11.0%	0.3%	—	31.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	2.9%	22.4%	1.0%	—	27.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	14.3%	1.6%	0.0%	—	26.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.6%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.4%	46.5%	0.0%	—	25.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	3.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	1.0%	0.2%	4.2%	1.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	1.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	1.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	90.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	87.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-04 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	86.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	86.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	85.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	78.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	77.2°F	6.9°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 04 · 03:43 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗