KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 04 · 14:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

48%

40%

10%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

ICONNO 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.00u · ICON −58.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T03:43:01+00:00	71.7%	45.2%	45.1%	33.5%	44.3%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	71.7%	45.2%	45.1%	33.5%	44.3%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00	71.7%	45.2%	37.2%	33.5%	44.3%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00	71.7%	45.2%	37.2%	33.5%	44.3%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00	71.7%	45.2%	37.2%	33.5%	44.3%
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	77.5%	45.2%	37.2%	10.2%	8.7%
2026-10-04T08:15:43+00:00	77.5%	45.2%	37.2%	10.2%	8.7%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	77.5%	45.2%	37.2%	10.2%	8.7%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	77.5%	45.2%	37.2%	10.2%	8.7%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	77.5%	45.2%	37.2%	10.2%	8.7%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	77.5%	47.7%	40.3%	10.2%	8.7%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	77.5%	47.7%	40.3%	10.2%	8.7%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	77.5%	47.7%	40.3%	10.2%	8.7%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	75.2%	47.7%	40.3%	10.2%	8.7%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	75.2%	47.8%	40.4%	10.2%	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	90.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	87.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-04 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	86.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	86.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	85.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	78.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	77.2°F	6.9°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 04 · 03:43 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗