KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 11 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

86%

54%

26%

22%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.0¢Risks 57.05u

ICONNO 43.0¢Risks 42.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.95u · ICON −42.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	15.9%	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	—	—	—	84.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	55.1%	89.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	83.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	76.4%	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	40.6%	13.2%	—	—	87.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	95.8%	52.8%	23.5%	—	92.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	14.4%	70.9%	44.2%	—	92.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	69.1%	9.3%	87.1%	—	88.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	59.5%	82.1%	35.9%	—	84.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	9.5%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	31.5%	—	77.5%	—	58.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	39.0%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	73.8%	40.5%	95.3%	47.4%	—	50.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	12.5%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	9.0%	18.4%	18.4%	—	47.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	17.1%	20.3%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	44.2%	6.8%	32.1%	—	41.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	29.9%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	17.0%	1.7%	33.0%	10.8%	35.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	17.6%	13.2%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	37.1%	19.0%	29.2%	—	60.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	27.6%	4.5%	2.4%	—	69.5%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	27.0%	10.0%	63.7%	25.1%	71.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	15.2%	32.5%	52.4%	—	66.4%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	19.9%	77.3%	51.2%	—	64.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	31.4%	93.2%	67.5%	—	62.7%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	30.7%	34.3%	71.6%	2.4%	73.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	23.2%	72.4%	59.7%	—	76.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	14.6%	86.2%	44.2%	10.2%	70.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	8.0%	89.5%	53.0%	—	66.2%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	4.8%	96.3%	51.6%	6.1%	54.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	8.6%	63.0%	21.6%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	77.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	70.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
ICON	22%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗