KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 11 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

86%

54%

26%

22%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.0¢Risks 57.05u

ICONNO 43.0¢Risks 42.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.95u · ICON −42.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T03:06:35+00:00	48.3%	82.5%	52.2%	61.0%	18.3%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	48.3%	82.5%	52.2%	61.0%	18.3%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	48.3%	82.5%	52.2%	61.0%	18.3%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	48.3%	82.5%	44.6%	61.0%	18.3%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	48.3%	82.5%	44.6%	61.0%	18.3%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	48.3%	82.5%	44.6%	61.0%	18.3%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	53.7%	82.5%	44.6%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	53.7%	82.5%	44.6%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	53.7%	82.5%	44.6%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	53.7%	82.5%	44.6%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	53.7%	82.5%	44.6%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	53.7%	73.4%	51.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	53.7%	73.4%	51.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	53.7%	73.4%	51.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	53.7%	73.4%	51.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	57.3%	73.3%	51.2%	51.8%	50.0%
2026-10-09T15:27:27+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	58.3%	76.8%	33.7%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	58.3%	76.8%	33.7%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	52.6%	76.8%	33.7%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	52.6%	76.8%	33.7%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	52.6%	76.8%	33.7%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	52.6%	76.8%	33.7%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	60.6%	90.9%	52.6%	88.5%	25.0%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	60.6%	90.9%	52.6%	88.5%	25.0%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	60.6%	90.9%	52.6%	88.5%	25.0%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	60.6%	90.9%	52.6%	88.5%	25.0%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	60.6%	91.7%	52.6%	88.5%	25.0%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	60.6%	91.7%	52.6%	88.5%	25.0%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	60.6%	91.7%	52.6%	88.5%	25.0%
2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00	60.6%	91.7%	52.6%	88.5%	25.0%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	55.8%	91.7%	52.6%	88.5%	25.0%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	55.8%	91.7%	52.6%	88.5%	25.0%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	55.8%	91.7%	52.6%	88.5%	25.0%
2026-10-11T03:44:48+00:00	54.0%	91.9%	23.7%	85.8%	22.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	54.0%	91.9%	23.7%	85.8%	22.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	54.0%	91.9%	25.8%	85.8%	22.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	54.0%	91.9%	25.8%	85.8%	22.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	54.0%	91.9%	25.8%	85.8%	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	77.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	70.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
ICON	22%	69.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗