KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 09 · 14:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

86%

85%

82%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.6¢Risks 44.82u

HRESNO 10.4¢Risks 5.18u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.18u · HRES −5.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	9.8%	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	10.6%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	14.1%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.1%	10.2%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	2.6%	24.6%	7.4%	—	34.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	12.8%	1.1%	38.5%	—	26.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	72.4%	—	2.1%	—	25.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	74.5%	73.2%	64.8%	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	0.0%	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	67.0%	72.1%	61.5%	—	25.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	28.8%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	62.9%	64.6%	57.8%	—	29.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	70.6%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	50.0%	63.6%	71.8%	—	51.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	69.9%	74.7%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	80.3%	77.5%	80.3%	—	74.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	84.8%	72.6%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	73.2%	77.3%	74.9%	0.0%	67.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	62.5%	77.2%	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	68.9%	83.1%	55.5%	—	73.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	68.5%	88.2%	0.0%	—	67.5%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	62.6%	90.0%	74.0%	—	64.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	57.2%	91.8%	70.7%	—	67.5%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	43.8%	91.5%	72.4%	35.4%	65.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	43.6%	92.3%	69.8%	—	51.3%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	46.0%	93.5%	68.1%	31.9%	51.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	52.8%	87.5%	71.2%	—	61.0%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	62.8%	87.0%	74.4%	33.1%	69.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.9%	70.2%	89.5%	64.8%	—	56.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.4%	72.4%	95.2%	57.9%	34.6%	71.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	95.1%	97.2%	71.9%	—	86.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	88.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	88.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
ICON	86%	87.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	87.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	87.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 05 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗