KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 09 · 14:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

86%

85%

82%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.6¢Risks 44.82u

HRESNO 10.4¢Risks 5.18u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.18u · HRES −5.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00	36.0%	47.3%	20.4%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00	36.0%	47.3%	20.4%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00	36.0%	47.3%	20.4%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00	36.0%	47.3%	20.4%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00	36.0%	47.3%	20.4%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00	36.0%	54.4%	24.5%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	36.0%	54.4%	24.5%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00	36.0%	54.4%	24.5%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00	44.3%	54.4%	24.5%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00	44.3%	54.4%	24.5%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00	44.3%	46.6%	24.5%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00	44.3%	46.6%	24.5%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00	44.3%	46.6%	24.5%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00	44.3%	46.6%	31.3%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	44.3%	46.6%	31.3%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00	44.3%	46.6%	31.3%	24.5%	8.4%
2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00	34.0%	46.6%	31.3%	24.5%	24.3%
2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00	34.0%	46.6%	31.3%	24.5%	24.3%
2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00	34.0%	46.6%	31.3%	24.5%	24.3%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	34.0%	46.6%	31.3%	24.5%	24.3%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	34.0%	46.6%	31.3%	24.5%	24.3%
2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00	34.0%	46.6%	40.4%	24.5%	24.2%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	34.0%	46.6%	40.4%	24.5%	24.2%
2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00	34.0%	46.6%	40.4%	24.5%	24.2%
2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00	30.8%	46.6%	40.4%	24.5%	24.2%
2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00	30.8%	46.6%	40.4%	24.5%	24.2%
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00	30.8%	46.6%	40.4%	24.5%	24.2%
2026-10-06T04:07:51+00:00	30.8%	46.6%	40.4%	24.5%	24.2%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00	30.8%	46.6%	27.1%	24.5%	24.2%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	30.8%	46.6%	27.1%	24.5%	24.2%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00	30.8%	46.6%	27.1%	24.5%	24.2%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00	30.8%	46.6%	27.1%	24.5%	24.2%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00	61.1%	46.6%	27.1%	24.5%	33.7%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	61.1%	46.6%	27.1%	24.5%	33.7%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00	61.1%	46.6%	27.1%	24.5%	33.7%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00	61.1%	46.6%	27.1%	24.5%	33.7%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	61.1%	35.6%	39.6%	24.5%	33.7%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	61.1%	35.6%	39.6%	24.5%	33.7%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00	61.1%	35.6%	39.6%	24.5%	33.7%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00	61.1%	35.6%	39.6%	24.5%	33.7%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00	85.1%	35.6%	39.6%	24.5%	33.7%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	85.1%	35.6%	39.6%	24.5%	33.7%
2026-10-08T03:06:36+00:00	86.5%	50.0%	79.3%	36.5%	78.5%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	86.5%	50.0%	79.3%	36.5%	78.5%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	86.5%	50.0%	79.3%	36.5%	78.5%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	86.5%	50.0%	79.3%	36.5%	78.5%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	86.5%	50.0%	79.3%	36.5%	78.5%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	86.5%	50.0%	79.3%	36.5%	78.5%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	89.2%	50.0%	79.3%	51.6%	73.6%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	89.2%	50.0%	79.3%	51.6%	73.6%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	89.2%	50.0%	79.3%	51.6%	73.6%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	89.2%	50.0%	79.3%	51.6%	73.6%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	89.2%	50.0%	79.3%	51.6%	73.6%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	89.2%	50.9%	77.5%	51.6%	73.6%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	89.2%	50.9%	77.5%	51.6%	73.6%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	89.2%	50.9%	77.5%	51.6%	73.6%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	89.2%	50.9%	77.5%	51.6%	73.6%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	88.5%	50.8%	77.6%	51.6%	74.2%
2026-10-08T15:15:58+00:00	88.5%	51.7%	77.6%	51.6%	74.2%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00	88.5%	51.7%	77.6%	51.6%	74.2%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00	88.5%	51.7%	77.6%	51.6%	74.2%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00	88.5%	51.7%	77.6%	51.6%	74.2%
2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00	88.5%	51.7%	77.6%	51.6%	74.2%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00	88.5%	51.7%	77.6%	51.6%	74.2%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00	84.2%	51.7%	77.6%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00	84.2%	51.7%	77.6%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00	84.2%	51.7%	77.6%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00	84.2%	51.7%	77.6%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	84.2%	51.7%	77.6%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	84.2%	53.4%	69.7%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00	84.2%	53.4%	69.7%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00	84.2%	53.4%	69.7%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00	88.5%	53.4%	69.7%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00	88.5%	53.4%	69.7%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00	88.5%	53.4%	69.7%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00	88.5%	53.4%	69.7%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00	88.5%	53.4%	69.7%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00	88.5%	53.4%	84.8%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00	88.5%	53.4%	84.8%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00	88.5%	53.4%	84.8%	78.2%	63.1%
2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00	89.9%	53.4%	84.8%	82.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	89.9%	53.4%	84.8%	82.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00	89.9%	53.4%	84.8%	82.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	89.9%	53.4%	84.8%	82.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00	89.9%	53.4%	84.8%	82.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00	89.9%	53.4%	84.8%	82.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	89.9%	97.3%	84.8%	82.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00	89.9%	97.3%	84.8%	82.0%	85.0%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00	88.2%	97.3%	84.8%	82.0%	85.6%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00	88.2%	97.3%	84.8%	82.0%	85.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	88.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	88.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
ICON	86%	87.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	87.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	82%	87.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	86.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-09 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 05 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗