KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

81%

74%

57%

24%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.5¢Risks 55.45u

ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.55u · ICON −44.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	18.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	7.7%	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	66.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	8.1%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	7.4%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	10.7%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	0.1%	7.5%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	1.7%	19.4%	5.2%	—	28.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	9.3%	0.7%	31.7%	—	21.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	65.6%	—	1.3%	—	20.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	67.7%	66.3%	57.1%	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	0.0%	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	59.1%	64.7%	53.3%	—	19.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	22.0%	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	54.4%	56.1%	49.1%	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	62.4%	64.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	40.9%	54.6%	63.6%	—	42.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	61.2%	66.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	72.9%	69.6%	72.9%	—	66.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	78.1%	63.7%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	64.1%	68.8%	66.0%	0.0%	58.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	52.1%	68.4%	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	58.7%	75.3%	44.5%	—	63.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	57.8%	81.7%	0.0%	—	56.7%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	51.2%	84.0%	63.7%	—	53.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	45.2%	86.1%	59.5%	—	56.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	32.0%	85.6%	61.1%	24.6%	53.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	31.4%	86.5%	57.7%	—	38.5%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	33.1%	88.0%	55.4%	21.0%	38.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	39.0%	78.9%	58.3%	—	47.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	48.5%	77.8%	61.4%	21.2%	55.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	56.0%	80.8%	50.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	57.9%	89.8%	42.1%	21.4%	56.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	89.3%	93.2%	56.6%	—	75.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	87%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	87.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	88.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	86.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	85.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	24%	82.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗