KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

81%

74%

57%

24%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.5¢Risks 55.45u

ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.55u · ICON −44.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	80.3%	28.9%	31.4%	19.8%	28.5%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	80.3%	28.9%	31.4%	19.8%	28.5%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	80.3%	28.9%	70.2%	19.8%	28.5%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	80.3%	28.9%	70.2%	19.8%	28.5%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	80.3%	28.9%	70.2%	19.8%	28.5%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	80.3%	28.9%	70.2%	19.8%	28.5%
2026-10-06T20:01:18+00:00	84.6%	28.9%	70.2%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	84.6%	28.9%	70.2%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-06T21:32:38+00:00	84.6%	28.9%	70.2%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	84.6%	28.9%	70.2%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-06T23:03:04+00:00	84.6%	30.2%	78.0%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-06T23:48:39+00:00	84.6%	30.2%	78.0%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	84.6%	30.2%	78.0%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-07T01:19:08+00:00	84.6%	30.2%	78.0%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-07T02:04:27+00:00	83.2%	30.2%	78.0%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-07T02:49:36+00:00	83.2%	30.2%	78.0%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-07T03:34:43+00:00	83.2%	30.2%	78.0%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-07T04:20:12+00:00	83.2%	30.2%	78.0%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-07T05:06:57+00:00	83.2%	30.2%	76.0%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	83.2%	30.2%	76.0%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-07T06:37:41+00:00	83.2%	30.2%	76.0%	22.4%	78.4%
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00	86.0%	30.2%	76.0%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00	86.0%	30.2%	76.0%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00	86.0%	30.2%	76.0%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00	86.0%	30.2%	76.0%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00	86.0%	30.2%	76.0%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T11:10:36+00:00	86.0%	38.5%	78.6%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00	86.0%	38.5%	78.6%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00	86.0%	38.5%	78.6%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	84.1%	38.5%	78.6%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	84.1%	38.6%	78.6%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00	84.1%	38.6%	78.6%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	84.1%	38.5%	78.6%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T16:33:13+00:00	84.1%	38.5%	78.6%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	84.1%	38.5%	74.8%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	84.1%	38.5%	74.8%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	84.1%	38.5%	74.8%	62.2%	79.1%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	83.1%	38.5%	74.8%	30.2%	72.7%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	83.1%	38.5%	74.8%	30.2%	72.7%
2026-10-07T21:04:44+00:00	83.1%	38.5%	74.8%	30.2%	72.7%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	83.1%	38.5%	74.8%	30.2%	72.7%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	83.1%	38.5%	74.8%	30.2%	72.7%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	83.1%	41.1%	71.5%	30.2%	73.2%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	83.1%	41.1%	71.5%	30.2%	73.2%
2026-10-08T00:50:50+00:00	83.1%	41.1%	71.5%	30.2%	73.2%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	81.5%	41.1%	71.5%	30.2%	73.2%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	81.5%	41.1%	71.5%	30.2%	73.2%
2026-10-10T04:17:03+00:00	80.5%	93.8%	75.3%	70.4%	70.3%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	80.5%	93.8%	78.0%	70.4%	70.3%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	80.5%	93.8%	78.0%	70.4%	70.3%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	80.5%	93.8%	78.0%	70.4%	70.3%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	80.5%	93.8%	78.0%	70.4%	70.3%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	81.6%	93.8%	78.0%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	81.6%	93.8%	78.0%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	81.6%	93.8%	78.0%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	81.6%	93.8%	78.0%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	81.6%	92.0%	78.0%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	81.6%	92.0%	78.0%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	81.6%	92.0%	78.0%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	81.6%	92.0%	78.0%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T14:04:55+00:00	80.3%	91.5%	77.1%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T14:53:51+00:00	80.3%	91.5%	77.1%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	80.3%	92.0%	77.1%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	80.3%	92.0%	77.1%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	80.3%	92.0%	68.6%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	80.3%	92.0%	68.6%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	80.3%	92.0%	68.6%	70.4%	55.6%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	84.1%	92.0%	68.6%	70.4%	47.8%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	84.1%	92.0%	68.6%	70.4%	47.8%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	84.1%	92.0%	68.6%	70.4%	47.8%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	84.1%	92.0%	68.6%	70.4%	47.8%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	84.1%	92.0%	68.6%	70.0%	47.8%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	84.1%	92.0%	74.1%	69.6%	47.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	84.1%	92.0%	74.1%	69.6%	47.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	84.1%	92.0%	74.1%	69.6%	47.8%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	84.7%	92.0%	74.1%	69.6%	47.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	84.7%	92.0%	74.1%	69.6%	47.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	84.7%	92.0%	74.1%	69.6%	47.8%
2026-10-11T03:44:48+00:00	84.7%	92.0%	74.1%	69.6%	47.8%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	84.7%	92.0%	74.1%	69.6%	47.8%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	84.7%	92.0%	79.9%	69.6%	47.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	84.7%	92.0%	79.9%	69.6%	47.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	84.7%	92.0%	79.9%	69.6%	47.8%
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00	81.7%	92.0%	79.9%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	81.7%	92.0%	79.9%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	81.7%	92.0%	79.9%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	81.7%	92.0%	79.9%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T10:33:44+00:00	81.7%	92.0%	79.9%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	81.7%	82.9%	83.0%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	81.7%	82.9%	83.0%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	81.7%	82.9%	83.0%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	74.3%	82.9%	83.0%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	74.3%	82.2%	83.0%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	74.3%	82.9%	83.0%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	74.3%	82.9%	83.0%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	74.3%	82.9%	83.0%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	74.3%	82.9%	74.2%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	74.3%	82.9%	74.2%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	74.3%	82.9%	74.2%	69.5%	47.8%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	75.1%	82.9%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	75.1%	82.9%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	75.1%	82.9%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	75.1%	82.9%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	75.1%	82.9%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	75.1%	73.8%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	75.1%	73.8%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	75.1%	73.8%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	81.0%	73.8%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	81.0%	73.8%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	81.0%	73.8%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	81.0%	73.8%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	81.0%	73.8%	74.2%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	81.0%	73.8%	87.0%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	81.0%	73.8%	87.0%	57.4%	23.9%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	81.0%	73.8%	87.0%	57.4%	23.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	87%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	87.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
National Blend	87%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	88.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	86.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	85.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	24%	82.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗