KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

65%

47%

36%

10%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.6¢Risks 38.60u

ICONNO 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.40u · ICON −61.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	55.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	4.4%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	3.9%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	5.9%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.0%	3.8%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	0.7%	11.2%	2.4%	—	17.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	4.6%	0.2%	19.9%	—	12.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	50.8%	—	0.5%	—	11.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	52.4%	50.8%	41.3%	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	0.0%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	42.5%	48.3%	36.9%	—	10.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	11.5%	48.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	37.1%	38.8%	32.2%	—	11.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	44.6%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	24.4%	36.4%	45.4%	—	25.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	42.5%	48.1%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	54.9%	51.0%	54.9%	—	47.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	60.9%	44.0%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	43.9%	49.0%	45.9%	0.0%	37.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	31.6%	47.9%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	37.1%	55.5%	24.7%	—	42.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	35.7%	63.3%	0.0%	—	34.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	28.9%	65.9%	40.8%	—	31.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	23.4%	68.5%	35.9%	—	32.5%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	13.7%	66.9%	36.5%	9.5%	29.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	12.8%	67.5%	32.5%	—	17.4%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	13.4%	69.3%	29.5%	7.0%	16.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	16.4%	54.2%	31.2%	—	22.1%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	22.2%	51.4%	33.1%	6.3%	28.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	27.2%	54.5%	22.4%	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	27.6%	68.3%	16.1%	5.7%	26.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	66.1%	74.6%	25.4%	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	87.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	88.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	86.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	85.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	82.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗