KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

65%

47%

36%

10%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.6¢Risks 38.60u

ICONNO 61.4¢Risks 61.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.40u · ICON −61.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:17:02+00:00	65.3%	75.3%	53.6%	53.6%	51.0%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	65.3%	75.3%	57.1%	53.6%	51.0%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	65.3%	75.3%	57.1%	53.6%	51.0%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	65.3%	75.3%	57.1%	53.6%	51.0%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	65.3%	75.3%	57.1%	53.6%	51.0%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	66.0%	75.3%	57.1%	53.6%	33.7%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	66.0%	75.3%	57.1%	53.6%	33.7%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	66.0%	75.3%	57.1%	53.6%	33.7%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	66.0%	75.3%	57.1%	53.6%	33.7%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	66.0%	71.0%	57.1%	53.6%	33.7%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	66.0%	71.0%	57.1%	53.6%	33.7%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	66.0%	71.0%	57.1%	53.6%	33.7%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	66.0%	71.0%	57.1%	53.6%	33.7%
2026-10-10T14:04:55+00:00	64.2%	70.6%	55.9%	53.6%	33.7%
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	56.0%	56.3%	60.8%	48.9%	26.8%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	56.0%	56.3%	60.8%	48.9%	26.8%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	56.0%	56.3%	60.8%	48.9%	26.8%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	56.0%	56.3%	48.6%	48.9%	26.8%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	56.0%	56.3%	48.6%	48.9%	26.8%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	56.0%	56.3%	48.6%	48.9%	26.8%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	57.0%	56.3%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	57.0%	56.3%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	57.0%	56.3%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	57.0%	56.3%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	57.0%	56.3%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	57.0%	47.2%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	57.0%	47.2%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	57.0%	47.2%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	64.7%	47.2%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	64.7%	47.2%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	64.7%	47.2%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	64.7%	47.2%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	64.7%	47.2%	48.6%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	64.7%	47.2%	67.1%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	64.7%	47.2%	67.1%	36.4%	10.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	64.7%	47.2%	67.1%	36.4%	10.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	87.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	88.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	86.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	85.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	82.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗