KBNA / Mon Oct 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 12 · 07:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

28%

13%

12%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 18.5¢Risks 18.50u

ICONNO 81.5¢Risks 81.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +81.50u · ICON −81.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.8%	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	38.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	1.5%	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.3%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.0%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.0%	1.1%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.1%	4.0%	0.6%	—	7.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	1.3%	0.0%	8.2%	—	4.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	28.9%	—	0.1%	—	3.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	29.5%	28.1%	20.6%	—	4.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	0.0%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	20.7%	25.1%	16.8%	—	2.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	3.3%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	16.1%	17.2%	13.1%	—	3.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	20.9%	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	8.3%	14.9%	20.9%	—	9.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	18.4%	22.4%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	27.1%	24.0%	27.1%	—	21.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	31.7%	18.3%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	17.6%	21.2%	19.0%	0.0%	13.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	10.1%	19.8%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	12.5%	24.7%	6.6%	—	15.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	11.2%	30.5%	0.0%	—	10.7%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	7.6%	32.0%	13.4%	—	8.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	5.1%	33.6%	10.2%	—	8.7%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	2.1%	30.9%	10.0%	1.2%	7.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.8%	30.2%	7.7%	—	2.8%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.7%	30.7%	6.1%	0.6%	2.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.1%	17.3%	6.2%	—	3.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	3.2%	14.6%	6.3%	0.4%	4.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.1%	15.3%	2.9%	—	1.7%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	3.7%	23.8%	1.5%	0.3%	3.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	20.3%	28.1%	2.8%	—	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	35%	88.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	87.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	86.3°F	2.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	85.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	82.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261012-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 05 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Mon Oct 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗