KBNA / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

84%

76%

63%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.5¢Risks 80.55u

ICONNO 19.4¢Risks 19.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.45u · ICON −19.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	7.3%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	9.3%	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	2.5%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	2.5%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	30.7%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	57.1%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	6.6%	12.4%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	69.5%	—	2.1%	—	31.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	85.2%	75.1%	52.2%	—	23.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	65.6%	69.1%	35.1%	—	24.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	42.1%	82.6%	66.3%	—	56.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	73.7%	14.8%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	85.7%	83.2%	74.9%	—	67.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	79.2%	87.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	90.3%	84.9%	74.5%	—	73.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	89.6%	79.8%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	89.0%	81.0%	77.0%	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	87.8%	81.7%	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	86.4%	84.7%	78.2%	—	74.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	88.1%	89.0%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	86.6%	91.4%	78.8%	—	73.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	75.5%	91.2%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	66.9%	92.7%	70.8%	0.1%	73.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	66.4%	95.0%	0.1%	—	66.4%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	64.8%	96.0%	74.0%	86.6%	69.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	73.7%	96.5%	73.7%	—	70.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	82.6%	97.0%	72.4%	0.0%	73.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.1%	83.4%	97.0%	70.9%	—	63.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	79.0%	98.1%	68.1%	89.3%	64.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	92.4%	97.3%	71.2%	—	74.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	97.7%	97.7%	75.5%	96.8%	80.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	98.3%	98.9%	76.4%	—	74.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	98.0%	98.7%	79.7%	98.5%	84.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	99.3%	99.4%	91.4%	—	95.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	90.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	>99%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	91.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	89.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	86.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	86.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	63%	84.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 07 · 04:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗