KBNA / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

27%

26%

14%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.1¢Risks 48.10u

ICONNO 51.9¢Risks 51.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.90u · ICON −51.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	9.8%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	26.2%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	0.9%	2.3%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	35.6%	—	0.2%	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	55.1%	40.6%	19.4%	—	5.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	28.9%	32.3%	9.0%	—	5.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	11.5%	47.6%	28.1%	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	1.9%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	50.8%	46.7%	35.3%	—	27.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	39.8%	52.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	57.8%	47.4%	33.0%	—	31.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	55.4%	38.5%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	52.8%	39.1%	33.9%	—	23.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	49.0%	38.8%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	45.1%	42.3%	33.0%	—	28.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	47.0%	49.0%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	42.8%	53.1%	31.2%	—	25.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	26.2%	51.1%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	17.6%	53.3%	20.6%	0.0%	23.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	16.1%	59.0%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	14.0%	61.5%	20.7%	36.3%	16.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	19.1%	61.9%	19.1%	—	16.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	26.6%	62.3%	16.6%	0.0%	17.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	25.9%	60.2%	14.3%	—	10.3%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	19.1%	65.7%	11.3%	33.1%	9.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	37.7%	56.9%	11.8%	—	13.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	57.2%	57.2%	13.0%	51.4%	17.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	59.0%	64.8%	12.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.6%	53.2%	59.4%	12.5%	57.9%	17.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	64.5%	66.1%	24.1%	—	35.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	91.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	91.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	86.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	86.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	84.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗