KBNA / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

27%

26%

14%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.1¢Risks 48.10u

ICONNO 51.9¢Risks 51.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.90u · ICON −51.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-09T03:19:02+00:00	65.9%	28.5%	62.6%	54.8%	67.2%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00	65.9%	28.5%	62.6%	54.8%	67.2%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00	65.9%	28.5%	62.6%	54.8%	67.2%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00	65.9%	28.5%	69.9%	54.8%	67.2%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00	65.9%	28.5%	69.9%	54.8%	67.2%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00	65.9%	28.5%	69.9%	54.8%	67.2%
2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00	66.8%	28.5%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	66.8%	28.5%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00	66.8%	28.5%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	66.8%	28.5%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00	66.8%	28.5%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00	66.8%	28.5%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	66.8%	46.5%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00	66.8%	46.5%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00	64.4%	46.5%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00	64.4%	46.5%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T15:27:27+00:00	64.4%	48.3%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	64.4%	48.3%	69.9%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	64.4%	48.3%	64.8%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	64.4%	48.3%	64.8%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	64.4%	48.3%	64.8%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	64.4%	48.3%	64.8%	42.9%	70.0%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	63.6%	48.3%	64.8%	36.7%	65.5%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	63.6%	48.3%	64.8%	36.7%	65.5%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	63.6%	48.3%	64.8%	36.7%	65.5%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	63.6%	48.3%	64.8%	36.7%	65.5%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	63.6%	48.2%	64.8%	36.7%	65.5%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	63.6%	48.2%	64.8%	36.7%	65.5%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	63.6%	48.2%	64.8%	36.7%	65.5%
2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00	63.6%	48.2%	64.8%	36.7%	65.5%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	64.4%	48.2%	64.8%	36.7%	65.5%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	64.4%	48.2%	64.8%	36.7%	65.5%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	64.4%	48.2%	64.8%	36.7%	65.5%
2026-10-10T14:53:51+00:00	67.0%	42.9%	66.7%	36.7%	52.0%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	67.0%	42.9%	66.7%	36.7%	52.0%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	67.0%	42.9%	66.7%	36.7%	52.0%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	67.0%	42.9%	62.8%	36.7%	52.0%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	67.0%	42.9%	62.8%	36.7%	52.0%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	67.0%	42.9%	62.8%	36.7%	52.0%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	62.8%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	62.8%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	62.8%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	62.8%	36.7%	50.0%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	62.8%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	54.7%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	54.7%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	54.7%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	71.1%	42.9%	54.7%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	71.1%	42.9%	54.7%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	71.1%	42.9%	54.7%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-11T03:44:48+00:00	71.1%	42.9%	54.7%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	71.1%	42.9%	54.7%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	71.1%	42.9%	65.0%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	71.1%	42.9%	65.0%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	71.1%	42.9%	65.0%	43.8%	50.0%
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	65.0%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	65.0%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	65.0%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	65.0%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T10:33:44+00:00	68.7%	42.9%	65.0%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	68.7%	38.3%	63.9%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	68.7%	38.3%	63.9%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	68.7%	38.3%	63.9%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	65.2%	38.3%	63.9%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	65.2%	38.5%	63.9%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	65.2%	37.2%	63.9%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	65.2%	37.2%	63.9%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	65.2%	37.2%	63.9%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	65.2%	37.2%	55.1%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	65.2%	37.2%	55.1%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	65.2%	37.2%	55.1%	38.5%	50.0%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	67.0%	37.2%	55.1%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	67.0%	37.2%	55.1%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	67.0%	37.2%	55.1%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	67.0%	37.2%	55.1%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	67.0%	37.2%	55.1%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	67.0%	31.1%	56.4%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	67.0%	31.1%	56.4%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	67.0%	31.1%	56.4%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	70.4%	31.1%	56.4%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	70.4%	31.1%	56.4%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	70.4%	31.1%	56.4%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	70.4%	31.1%	56.4%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	70.4%	31.1%	56.4%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	70.4%	31.1%	68.5%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	70.4%	31.1%	68.5%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	70.4%	31.1%	68.5%	33.9%	13.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	71.8%	31.1%	68.5%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	71.8%	31.1%	68.5%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	71.8%	31.1%	68.5%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	71.8%	31.1%	68.5%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	71.8%	31.1%	68.5%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	71.8%	31.1%	67.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	71.8%	29.2%	67.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	71.8%	29.2%	67.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	71.0%	29.2%	67.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	71.0%	29.3%	67.1%	34.4%	18.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:44+00:00	77.5%	27.1%	60.8%	26.0%	14.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	77.5%	27.1%	82.2%	26.0%	14.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	77.5%	27.1%	82.2%	26.0%	14.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	77.5%	27.1%	82.2%	26.0%	14.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	77.5%	27.1%	82.2%	26.0%	14.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	91.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	91.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	86.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	86.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	84.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 09 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗