KBNA / Tue Oct 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

69%

18%

18%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.2¢Risks 40.25u

ICONNO 59.8¢Risks 59.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.75u · ICON −59.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.2%	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	1.5%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	7.4%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	21.2%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	0.6%	1.5%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	29.2%	—	0.1%	—	6.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	47.8%	33.7%	14.8%	—	3.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	22.8%	25.8%	6.3%	—	3.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	8.1%	39.7%	21.8%	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	1.2%	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	42.5%	38.5%	27.9%	—	21.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	31.9%	44.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	49.1%	38.8%	25.5%	—	24.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	46.4%	30.2%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	43.6%	30.6%	25.9%	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	39.7%	30.1%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	35.7%	33.0%	24.7%	—	21.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	37.2%	39.1%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	33.0%	42.8%	22.7%	—	17.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	18.3%	40.6%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	11.4%	42.4%	13.7%	0.0%	15.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	10.2%	47.8%	0.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	8.5%	50.0%	13.4%	26.0%	10.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	11.9%	50.0%	11.9%	—	10.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	17.4%	50.0%	10.0%	0.0%	10.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	16.6%	47.4%	8.2%	—	5.6%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	11.3%	52.7%	6.1%	22.0%	5.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	25.3%	43.1%	6.2%	—	7.6%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	42.8%	42.8%	6.8%	37.2%	9.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	44.0%	50.0%	6.0%	—	5.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	37.6%	43.7%	6.1%	42.1%	8.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	48.4%	50.0%	13.2%	—	21.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	91.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	91.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	86.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	86.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	84.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261013-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 06 · 20:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Tue Oct 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗