KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

98%

98%

97%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	15.2%	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	85.3%	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	79.8%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	79.7%	60.7%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	88.8%	97.8%	13.0%	—	33.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	18.4%	79.0%	77.4%	—	81.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	98.7%	99.7%	90.3%	—	87.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	99.6%	99.4%	88.9%	—	91.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	79.9%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.6%	95.9%	98.9%	—	89.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	98.5%	99.5%	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	97.5%	99.7%	98.4%	—	98.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.6%	99.9%	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.7%	99.9%	98.8%	—	99.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.5%	99.9%	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	98.9%	100.0%	99.1%	—	99.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.1%	100.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.1%	100.0%	97.7%	74.9%	99.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	94.5%	100.0%	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	97.2%	100.0%	99.3%	—	99.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%	26.7%	—	99.6%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%	99.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	—	99.4%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	90.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	99%	88.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	85.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	98%	91.6°F	6.9°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	88.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	77.0°F	11.1°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗