KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

98%

98%

97%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T03:06:36+00:00	74.1%	72.3%	48.4%	56.2%	87.5%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	74.1%	72.3%	48.4%	56.2%	87.5%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	74.1%	72.3%	48.4%	56.2%	87.5%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	74.1%	72.3%	75.5%	56.2%	87.5%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	74.1%	72.3%	75.5%	56.2%	87.5%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	74.1%	72.3%	75.5%	56.2%	87.5%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	95.8%	72.3%	75.5%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	95.8%	72.3%	75.5%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	95.8%	72.3%	75.5%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	95.8%	72.3%	75.5%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	95.8%	72.3%	75.5%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	95.8%	98.4%	98.9%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	95.8%	98.4%	98.9%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	95.8%	98.4%	98.9%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	95.8%	98.4%	98.9%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	99.8%	98.2%	98.9%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T15:15:58+00:00	99.8%	98.3%	98.9%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00	99.8%	98.3%	98.9%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00	99.8%	98.3%	98.9%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00	99.8%	98.3%	98.9%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T18:16:50+00:00	99.8%	98.3%	98.9%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00	99.8%	98.3%	98.9%	96.0%	41.4%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00	99.8%	98.3%	98.9%	96.8%	98.6%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00	99.8%	98.3%	98.9%	96.8%	98.6%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00	99.8%	98.3%	98.9%	96.8%	98.6%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00	99.8%	98.3%	98.9%	96.8%	98.6%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	99.8%	98.3%	98.9%	96.8%	98.6%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00	98.6%	98.5%	99.9%	96.8%	98.5%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00	98.6%	98.5%	99.9%	96.8%	98.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	90.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	99%	88.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	85.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	98%	91.6°F	6.9°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	88.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-08 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	77.0°F	11.1°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 08 · 03:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗