KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 07 · 10:25 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

68%

16%

<1%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.1¢Risks 35.10u

AIFSNO 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.90u · AIFS −64.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	5.9%	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	67.0%	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	58.1%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	56.1%	34.2%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	69.5%	90.4%	3.3%	—	13.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	5.1%	52.9%	50.7%	—	55.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	93.0%	97.7%	70.4%	—	64.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	96.6%	95.7%	66.3%	—	72.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	50.8%	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	96.2%	81.6%	92.9%	—	66.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	90.5%	95.9%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	85.9%	96.9%	89.5%	—	87.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	95.7%	98.9%	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	96.2%	98.8%	90.6%	—	92.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	94.4%	98.4%	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	90.6%	99.0%	91.8%	—	93.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	91.2%	99.2%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	90.6%	99.6%	83.0%	35.9%	91.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	70.2%	99.5%	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	79.4%	99.6%	91.0%	—	91.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	97.9%	99.7%	4.0%	—	93.3%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	97.1%	99.7%	93.2%	100.0%	91.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	99.1%	99.7%	92.2%	—	90.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	99.6%	99.8%	96.5%	100.0%	95.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	98.4%	99.7%	99.9%	96.3%	—	94.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	99.7%	99.9%	96.0%	100.0%	88.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.4%	100.0%	99.0%	—	97.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	99.9%	98.2%	100.0%	99.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.8%	100.0%	98.0%	—	98.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	99.9%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	98.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	85.6°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	84.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	81.0°F	9.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	75.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	68.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	64.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 07 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 81°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗