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KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 07 · 10:25 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
70%
EPS
68%
WN2
16%
HRES
3%
AIFS
<1%
Consensus
11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 35.1¢Risks 35.10u
VS
AIFSNO 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.90u · AIFS −64.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.6% · 2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.9% · 2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.9% · 2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.9% · 2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.9% · 2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.9% · 2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00IFS HRES: 3.1% · 2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:0010-07 07:2310-07 08:5410-07 10:25
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:000.2%67.6%15.9%3.1%70.0%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:000.2%67.6%15.9%3.1%70.0%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:000.2%67.6%15.9%3.1%70.0%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:000.2%67.6%15.9%3.1%70.0%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:000.2%67.6%15.9%3.1%70.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON70%85.6°F9.8°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble68%84.0°F7.7°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
National Blend52%81.0°F9.8°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 216%75.2°F5.3°F2026-10-06 18:00Pending
IFS HRES3%68.6°F6.4°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending
AIFS Single<1%64.5°F5.6°F2026-10-07 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 07 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 81°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗