KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 13 · 22:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

89%

88%

83%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 90.8¢Risks 45.38u

HRESNO 9.3¢Risks 4.63u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.63u · HRES −4.63u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	2.5%	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	49.4%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	39.5%	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	36.1%	18.0%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	49.3%	78.1%	0.9%	—	4.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	1.5%	31.7%	29.7%	—	34.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.8%	81.6%	92.2%	48.5%	—	41.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	88.9%	86.9%	42.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	27.7%	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	87.5%	60.7%	79.9%	—	41.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.6%	74.7%	86.3%	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	66.2%	88.7%	72.4%	—	69.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	85.0%	94.5%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	86.1%	93.9%	73.4%	—	77.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	81.0%	92.3%	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.3%	72.1%	94.4%	74.5%	—	77.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	72.6%	95.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	70.6%	97.2%	57.2%	12.8%	73.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	39.5%	96.2%	—	—	75.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	50.0%	96.7%	69.9%	—	71.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	88.2%	97.1%	0.5%	—	74.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	84.7%	96.9%	73.0%	99.4%	69.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	92.6%	96.5%	69.6%	—	65.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	95.4%	97.7%	80.9%	99.6%	76.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	96.3%	98.5%	79.1%	—	73.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	96.3%	98.8%	77.0%	99.8%	58.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	92.9%	99.0%	90.2%	—	81.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	98.9%	98.2%	84.6%	100.0%	89.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	95.2%	98.9%	81.9%	—	81.9%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	89.8%	96.6%	99.3%	93.4%	99.8%	84.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	99.2%	99.0%	96.6%	—	99.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	>99%	93.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	89.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	90.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	91%	91.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	87.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	87.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	87.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 07 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗