KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 13 · 22:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

89%

88%

83%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 90.8¢Risks 45.38u

HRESNO 9.3¢Risks 4.63u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.63u · HRES −4.63u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T07:23:29+00:00	0.0%	52.6%	5.9%	1.0%	58.5%
2026-10-07T08:09:26+00:00	0.0%	52.6%	5.9%	1.0%	58.5%
2026-10-07T08:54:46+00:00	0.0%	52.6%	5.9%	1.0%	58.5%
2026-10-07T09:39:53+00:00	0.0%	52.6%	5.9%	1.0%	58.5%
2026-10-07T10:25:17+00:00	0.0%	52.6%	5.9%	1.0%	58.5%
2026-10-07T11:10:37+00:00	0.0%	35.1%	0.9%	1.0%	58.5%
2026-10-07T11:56:00+00:00	0.0%	35.1%	0.9%	1.0%	58.5%
2026-10-07T12:41:06+00:00	0.0%	35.1%	0.9%	1.0%	58.5%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	0.9%	1.0%	58.5%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	0.9%	1.0%	58.9%
2026-10-07T15:02:40+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	0.9%	1.0%	58.9%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	0.9%	1.0%	58.9%
2026-10-07T16:33:13+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	0.9%	1.0%	58.9%
2026-10-07T17:18:46+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	5.5%	1.0%	58.9%
2026-10-07T18:03:54+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	5.5%	1.0%	58.9%
2026-10-07T18:49:00+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	5.5%	1.0%	58.9%
2026-10-07T19:34:09+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	5.5%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	5.5%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-07T21:04:44+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	5.5%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-07T21:50:01+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	5.5%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-07T22:35:08+00:00	4.0%	35.1%	5.5%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-07T23:20:16+00:00	4.0%	37.1%	7.2%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-08T00:05:30+00:00	4.0%	37.1%	7.2%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	4.0%	37.1%	7.2%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	27.1%	37.1%	7.2%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	27.1%	37.1%	7.2%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-08T03:06:37+00:00	27.1%	37.1%	7.2%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	27.1%	37.1%	7.2%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	27.1%	37.1%	7.2%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	27.1%	37.1%	23.3%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	27.1%	37.1%	23.3%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	27.1%	37.1%	23.3%	17.3%	66.7%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	65.5%	37.1%	23.3%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	65.5%	37.1%	23.3%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	65.5%	37.1%	23.3%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	65.5%	37.1%	23.3%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	65.5%	37.1%	23.3%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	65.5%	69.5%	76.7%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	65.5%	69.5%	76.7%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	65.5%	69.5%	76.7%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	65.5%	69.5%	76.7%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	93.5%	69.1%	76.7%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T15:15:58+00:00	93.5%	69.5%	76.7%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00	93.5%	69.5%	76.7%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00	93.5%	69.5%	76.7%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00	93.5%	69.5%	76.7%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	93.5%	69.5%	76.7%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00	93.5%	69.5%	76.7%	75.3%	10.9%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00	93.5%	69.5%	76.7%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00	93.5%	69.5%	76.7%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00	93.5%	69.5%	76.7%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00	93.5%	69.5%	76.7%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	93.5%	69.5%	76.7%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	93.5%	71.1%	93.9%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00	93.5%	71.1%	93.9%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00	93.5%	71.1%	93.9%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00	80.9%	71.1%	93.9%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00	80.9%	71.1%	93.9%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-09T03:19:03+00:00	80.9%	71.1%	93.9%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00	80.9%	71.1%	93.9%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00	80.9%	71.1%	93.9%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00	80.9%	71.1%	84.0%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00	80.9%	71.1%	84.0%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00	80.9%	71.1%	84.0%	78.5%	87.9%
2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00	93.5%	71.1%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	93.5%	71.1%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00	93.5%	71.1%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	93.5%	71.1%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00	93.5%	71.1%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00	93.5%	71.1%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	93.5%	90.7%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00	93.5%	90.7%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00	93.8%	90.7%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00	93.8%	90.7%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T15:27:28+00:00	93.8%	90.7%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	93.8%	90.7%	84.0%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	93.8%	90.7%	96.3%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	93.8%	90.7%	96.3%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	93.8%	90.7%	96.3%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	93.8%	90.7%	96.3%	83.8%	93.0%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	94.0%	90.7%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	94.0%	90.7%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	94.0%	90.7%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	94.0%	90.7%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	94.0%	91.2%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	94.0%	91.2%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	94.0%	91.2%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00	94.0%	91.2%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	93.5%	91.2%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	93.5%	91.2%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	93.5%	91.2%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-10T04:17:05+00:00	93.5%	91.2%	96.3%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	93.5%	91.2%	97.5%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	93.5%	91.2%	97.5%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	93.5%	91.2%	97.5%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	93.5%	91.2%	97.5%	76.1%	91.5%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	94.7%	91.2%	97.5%	76.1%	76.8%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	94.7%	91.2%	97.5%	76.1%	76.8%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	94.7%	91.2%	97.5%	76.1%	76.8%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	94.7%	91.2%	97.5%	76.1%	76.8%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	94.7%	98.7%	97.5%	76.1%	76.8%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	94.7%	98.7%	97.5%	76.1%	76.8%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	94.7%	98.7%	97.5%	76.1%	76.8%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	94.7%	98.7%	97.5%	76.1%	76.8%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	94.8%	98.7%	97.5%	76.2%	76.8%
2026-10-10T14:53:51+00:00	94.8%	98.7%	97.5%	76.2%	76.8%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	94.8%	98.7%	97.5%	76.2%	76.8%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	94.8%	98.7%	97.5%	76.2%	76.8%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	94.8%	98.7%	97.4%	76.2%	76.8%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	94.8%	98.7%	97.4%	76.2%	76.8%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	94.8%	98.7%	97.4%	76.2%	76.8%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	95.3%	98.7%	97.4%	76.2%	90.6%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	95.3%	98.7%	97.4%	76.2%	90.6%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	95.3%	98.7%	97.4%	76.2%	90.6%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	95.3%	98.7%	97.4%	76.2%	90.6%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	95.3%	98.7%	97.4%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	95.3%	98.5%	97.2%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	95.3%	98.5%	97.2%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	95.3%	98.5%	97.2%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	94.8%	98.5%	97.2%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	94.8%	98.5%	97.2%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	94.8%	98.5%	97.2%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-11T03:44:49+00:00	94.8%	98.5%	97.2%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	94.8%	98.5%	97.2%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	94.8%	98.5%	98.2%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	94.8%	98.5%	98.2%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	94.8%	98.5%	98.2%	87.7%	90.6%
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00	95.9%	98.5%	98.2%	88.2%	90.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	95.9%	98.5%	98.2%	88.2%	90.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	95.9%	98.5%	98.2%	88.2%	90.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	95.9%	98.5%	98.2%	88.2%	90.6%
2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:00	95.9%	98.5%	98.2%	88.2%	90.6%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	95.0%	98.6%	98.4%	88.2%	90.6%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	95.0%	98.6%	98.4%	88.2%	90.6%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	95.0%	98.6%	98.4%	88.2%	90.6%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	95.3%	98.6%	98.4%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	95.3%	98.6%	98.4%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	95.3%	98.6%	98.4%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	95.3%	98.6%	98.4%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	95.3%	98.6%	98.4%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	95.3%	96.5%	98.5%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	95.3%	96.5%	98.5%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	95.3%	96.5%	98.5%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	96.8%	96.5%	98.5%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	96.8%	96.5%	98.5%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	96.8%	96.5%	98.5%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	96.8%	96.5%	98.5%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	96.8%	96.5%	98.5%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	96.8%	96.5%	99.3%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	96.8%	96.5%	99.3%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	96.8%	96.5%	99.3%	83.2%	76.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	97.3%	96.5%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	97.3%	96.5%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	97.3%	96.5%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	97.3%	96.5%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	97.3%	96.5%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	97.3%	96.5%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	97.3%	92.1%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	97.3%	92.1%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	97.3%	92.1%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	97.1%	91.6%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	97.1%	91.6%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	97.1%	90.1%	99.3%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	97.1%	90.1%	98.8%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	97.1%	90.1%	98.8%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	97.1%	90.1%	98.8%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	97.1%	90.1%	98.8%	87.9%	46.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	96.6%	90.1%	98.8%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	96.6%	90.1%	98.8%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	96.6%	90.1%	98.8%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	96.6%	90.1%	98.8%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	96.6%	90.1%	98.6%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	96.6%	90.1%	98.6%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	96.6%	90.1%	98.6%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	96.6%	88.9%	98.6%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	96.3%	88.9%	98.6%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	96.3%	88.9%	98.6%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	96.3%	88.9%	98.6%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-13T04:15:44+00:00	96.3%	88.9%	98.6%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	96.3%	88.9%	99.5%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	96.3%	88.9%	99.5%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	96.3%	88.9%	99.5%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	96.3%	88.9%	99.5%	70.4%	81.6%
2026-10-13T08:03:14+00:00	96.1%	88.9%	99.5%	83.3%	88.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	96.1%	88.9%	99.5%	83.3%	88.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	96.1%	88.9%	99.5%	83.3%	88.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	96.1%	88.9%	99.5%	83.3%	88.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	96.7%	88.7%	98.2%	83.3%	88.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	96.7%	88.7%	98.2%	83.3%	88.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	96.7%	88.7%	98.2%	83.3%	88.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	96.7%	88.7%	98.2%	83.3%	87.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	96.7%	88.7%	98.2%	83.3%	87.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	96.7%	88.7%	98.2%	83.3%	87.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:13+00:00	96.7%	88.7%	98.2%	83.3%	87.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	96.7%	88.7%	98.2%	83.3%	87.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	>99%	93.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	89.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	90.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	91%	91.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	87.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	87.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	83%	87.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 07 · 07:23 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗