KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

71%

61%

56%

46%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.9¢Risks 58.90u

EPSNO 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.10u · EPS −41.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	21.9%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	14.6%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.4%	3.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	18.4%	45.8%	0.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	0.1%	8.2%	7.4%	—	9.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	47.7%	67.7%	16.0%	—	12.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	58.7%	54.8%	11.9%	—	15.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	5.3%	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	54.2%	21.9%	41.7%	—	10.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	34.2%	50.9%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	24.8%	54.4%	30.7%	—	27.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	46.4%	68.2%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	47.2%	65.3%	29.7%	—	33.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	37.9%	59.4%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	26.3%	64.3%	28.7%	—	32.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	25.7%	66.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	22.7%	73.2%	13.4%	0.8%	25.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	5.5%	67.4%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	8.5%	67.9%	19.8%	—	21.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	41.0%	68.5%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	33.1%	65.9%	19.9%	85.3%	16.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	47.6%	61.9%	16.0%	—	13.2%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	55.0%	66.9%	24.6%	86.3%	19.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	56.4%	70.9%	20.9%	—	15.8%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	54.0%	71.6%	17.3%	88.7%	7.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	39.0%	72.4%	32.5%	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	68.2%	61.4%	21.2%	93.7%	29.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	41.0%	64.8%	16.2%	—	16.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	43.7%	68.3%	31.7%	81.9%	17.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	63.0%	59.8%	40.2%	—	66.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	90.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	91.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
ICON	61%	89.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	89.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	88.3°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	87.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗