KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 11 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

71%

61%

56%

46%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.9¢Risks 58.90u

EPSNO 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.10u · EPS −41.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T14:53:51+00:00	70.7%	48.2%	76.4%	43.8%	37.7%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	70.7%	48.2%	76.4%	43.8%	37.7%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	70.7%	48.2%	76.4%	43.8%	37.7%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	70.7%	48.2%	72.3%	43.8%	37.7%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	70.7%	48.2%	72.3%	43.8%	37.7%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	70.7%	48.2%	72.3%	43.8%	37.7%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	72.1%	48.2%	72.3%	43.8%	60.7%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	72.1%	48.2%	72.3%	43.8%	60.7%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	72.1%	48.2%	72.3%	43.8%	60.7%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	72.1%	48.2%	72.3%	43.8%	60.7%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	72.1%	48.2%	72.3%	56.4%	60.7%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	72.1%	46.4%	71.4%	56.4%	60.7%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	72.1%	46.4%	71.4%	56.4%	60.7%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	72.1%	46.4%	71.4%	56.4%	60.7%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	70.7%	46.4%	71.4%	56.4%	60.7%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	70.7%	46.4%	71.4%	56.4%	60.7%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	70.7%	46.4%	71.4%	56.4%	60.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	90.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	91.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	Pending
ICON	61%	89.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	89.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	88.3°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	87.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗