KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

60%

29%

29%

26%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.9¢Risks 46.85u

HRESNO 53.1¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.15u · HRES −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	17.7%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	11.3%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.5%	2.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.1%	38.9%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	0.1%	5.7%	5.1%	—	6.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	40.2%	60.6%	11.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	50.8%	46.8%	8.4%	—	11.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	3.4%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	45.8%	16.2%	33.8%	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	26.7%	42.4%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	18.4%	45.6%	23.4%	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	37.6%	59.8%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	38.2%	56.4%	22.3%	—	25.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	29.2%	50.0%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	19.0%	54.9%	21.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	18.3%	57.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	15.7%	64.1%	8.6%	0.4%	17.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	3.1%	57.4%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	5.0%	57.6%	13.1%	—	14.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	30.5%	57.8%	0.0%	—	14.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	23.3%	54.6%	12.7%	77.6%	10.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	35.9%	50.0%	9.7%	—	7.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	42.6%	55.0%	15.9%	78.3%	12.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	43.6%	59.0%	12.8%	—	9.2%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	40.7%	59.3%	10.1%	80.9%	3.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	26.5%	59.7%	21.1%	—	11.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	54.3%	47.1%	12.2%	87.8%	18.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	27.2%	50.0%	8.6%	—	8.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	29.0%	53.2%	19.2%	69.7%	8.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	46.7%	43.4%	25.4%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	75%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	90.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	90.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	90.0°F	7.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	87.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	87.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	87.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 08 · 01:36 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗