KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

60%

29%

29%

26%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.9¢Risks 46.85u

HRESNO 53.1¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.15u · HRES −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T01:36:02+00:00	4.6%	13.2%	0.4%	3.0%	42.7%
2026-10-08T02:21:10+00:00	4.6%	13.2%	0.4%	3.0%	42.7%
2026-10-08T03:06:37+00:00	4.6%	13.2%	0.4%	3.0%	42.7%
2026-10-08T03:52:32+00:00	4.6%	13.2%	0.4%	3.0%	42.7%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	4.6%	13.2%	0.4%	3.0%	42.7%
2026-10-08T05:22:46+00:00	4.6%	13.2%	2.6%	3.0%	42.7%
2026-10-08T06:07:56+00:00	4.6%	13.2%	2.6%	3.0%	42.7%
2026-10-08T06:53:03+00:00	4.6%	13.2%	2.6%	3.0%	42.7%
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	23.0%	13.2%	2.6%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	23.0%	13.2%	2.6%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	23.0%	13.2%	2.6%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	23.0%	13.2%	2.6%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	23.0%	13.2%	2.6%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	23.0%	18.9%	27.5%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	23.0%	18.9%	27.5%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	23.0%	18.9%	27.5%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	23.0%	18.9%	27.5%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	64.8%	19.4%	27.5%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T15:15:58+00:00	64.8%	19.0%	27.5%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00	64.8%	19.0%	27.5%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00	64.8%	19.0%	27.5%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00	64.8%	19.0%	27.5%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	64.8%	19.0%	27.5%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00	64.8%	19.0%	27.5%	41.0%	1.8%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00	64.8%	19.0%	27.5%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00	64.8%	19.0%	27.5%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00	64.8%	19.0%	27.5%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00	64.8%	19.0%	27.5%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	64.8%	19.0%	27.5%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	64.8%	20.2%	58.8%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00	64.8%	20.2%	58.8%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00	64.8%	20.2%	58.8%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00	39.5%	20.2%	58.8%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00	39.5%	20.2%	58.8%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-09T03:19:03+00:00	39.5%	20.2%	58.8%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00	39.5%	20.2%	58.8%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00	39.5%	20.2%	58.8%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00	39.5%	20.2%	37.0%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00	39.5%	20.2%	37.0%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00	39.5%	20.2%	37.0%	45.2%	61.9%
2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00	61.3%	20.2%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	61.3%	20.2%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00	61.3%	20.2%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	61.3%	20.2%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00	61.3%	20.2%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00	61.3%	20.2%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	61.3%	33.0%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00	61.3%	33.0%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00	62.1%	33.0%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00	62.1%	33.0%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T15:27:28+00:00	62.1%	33.0%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	62.1%	33.0%	37.0%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	62.1%	33.0%	61.7%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	62.1%	33.0%	61.7%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	62.1%	33.0%	61.7%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	62.1%	33.0%	61.7%	47.9%	67.2%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	62.8%	33.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	62.8%	33.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	62.8%	33.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	62.8%	33.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	62.8%	34.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	62.8%	34.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	62.8%	34.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00	62.8%	34.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	61.3%	34.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	61.3%	34.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	61.3%	34.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-10T04:17:05+00:00	61.3%	34.0%	61.7%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	61.3%	34.0%	68.1%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	61.3%	34.0%	68.1%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	61.3%	34.0%	68.1%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	61.3%	34.0%	68.1%	37.1%	63.4%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	62.0%	34.0%	68.1%	37.1%	30.0%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	62.0%	34.0%	68.1%	37.1%	30.0%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	62.0%	34.0%	68.1%	37.1%	30.0%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	62.0%	34.0%	68.1%	37.1%	30.0%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	62.0%	30.9%	68.1%	37.1%	30.0%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	62.0%	30.9%	68.1%	37.1%	30.0%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	62.0%	30.9%	68.1%	37.1%	30.0%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	62.0%	30.9%	68.1%	37.1%	30.0%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	68.1%	37.1%	30.1%
2026-10-10T14:53:51+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	68.1%	37.1%	30.1%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	68.1%	37.1%	30.1%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	68.1%	37.1%	30.1%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	62.7%	37.1%	30.1%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	62.7%	37.1%	30.1%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	62.8%	30.9%	62.7%	37.1%	30.1%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	64.4%	30.9%	62.7%	37.1%	52.5%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	64.4%	30.9%	62.7%	37.1%	52.5%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	64.4%	30.9%	62.7%	37.1%	52.5%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	64.4%	30.9%	62.7%	37.1%	52.5%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	64.4%	30.9%	62.7%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	64.4%	29.3%	61.7%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	64.4%	29.3%	61.7%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	64.4%	29.3%	61.7%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	62.8%	29.3%	61.7%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	62.8%	29.3%	61.7%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	62.8%	29.3%	61.7%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-11T03:44:49+00:00	62.8%	29.3%	61.7%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	62.8%	29.3%	61.7%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	62.8%	29.3%	68.6%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	62.8%	29.3%	68.6%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	62.8%	29.3%	68.6%	48.4%	52.5%
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00	63.6%	29.3%	68.6%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	63.6%	29.3%	68.6%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	63.6%	29.3%	68.6%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	63.6%	29.3%	68.6%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:00	63.6%	29.3%	68.6%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	63.6%	34.4%	67.2%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	63.6%	34.4%	67.2%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	63.6%	34.4%	67.2%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	60.1%	34.4%	67.2%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	60.1%	34.8%	67.2%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	60.1%	35.0%	67.2%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	60.1%	35.0%	67.2%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	60.1%	35.0%	67.2%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	60.1%	35.0%	63.9%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	60.1%	35.0%	63.9%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	60.1%	35.0%	63.9%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	61.0%	35.0%	63.9%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	61.0%	35.0%	63.9%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	61.0%	35.0%	63.9%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	61.0%	35.0%	63.9%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	61.0%	35.0%	63.9%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	61.0%	29.0%	65.0%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	61.0%	29.0%	65.0%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	61.0%	29.0%	65.0%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	67.9%	29.0%	65.0%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	67.9%	29.0%	65.0%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	67.9%	29.0%	65.0%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	67.9%	29.0%	65.0%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	67.9%	29.0%	65.0%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	67.9%	29.0%	75.3%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	67.9%	29.0%	75.3%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	67.9%	29.0%	75.3%	35.2%	21.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	67.8%	29.0%	75.3%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	67.8%	29.0%	75.3%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	67.8%	29.0%	75.3%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	67.8%	29.0%	75.3%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	67.8%	29.0%	75.3%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	67.8%	29.0%	70.8%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	67.8%	24.1%	70.8%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	67.8%	24.1%	70.8%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	67.8%	24.1%	70.8%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	67.0%	24.5%	69.7%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	67.0%	24.5%	69.7%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	67.0%	24.4%	69.7%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	67.0%	24.4%	62.6%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	67.0%	24.4%	62.6%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	67.0%	24.4%	62.6%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	67.0%	24.4%	62.6%	38.5%	3.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	64.3%	24.4%	62.6%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	64.3%	24.4%	62.6%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	64.3%	24.4%	62.6%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	64.3%	24.4%	62.6%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	64.3%	24.4%	60.2%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	64.3%	24.4%	60.2%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	64.3%	24.4%	60.2%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	64.3%	22.4%	60.2%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	60.2%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	60.2%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	60.2%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:44+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	60.2%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	74.0%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	74.0%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	74.0%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	62.4%	22.4%	74.0%	17.7%	21.5%
2026-10-13T08:03:14+00:00	59.9%	22.4%	74.0%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	59.9%	22.4%	74.0%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	59.9%	22.4%	74.0%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	59.9%	22.4%	74.0%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	59.9%	27.3%	56.8%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	59.9%	27.3%	56.8%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	59.9%	27.3%	56.8%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	59.9%	27.3%	56.8%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	62.8%	27.2%	56.8%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	62.8%	27.2%	56.8%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	62.8%	27.3%	56.8%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	62.8%	27.3%	56.8%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	62.8%	27.3%	51.4%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	62.8%	27.3%	51.4%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	62.8%	27.3%	51.4%	26.0%	30.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	62.8%	27.3%	51.4%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	62.8%	27.3%	51.4%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	62.8%	27.3%	51.4%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:13+00:00	62.8%	27.3%	51.4%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	62.8%	27.3%	51.4%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	62.8%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	62.8%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	62.8%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	70.2%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	70.2%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	70.2%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	70.2%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	70.2%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	70.2%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	70.2%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00	70.2%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	67.7%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	67.7%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	67.7%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	67.7%	28.7%	59.5%	26.0%	29.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	75%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	90.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	90.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	90.0°F	7.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	29%	87.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	87.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	87.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 08 · 01:36 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗