KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

46%

20%

19%

18%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.7¢Risks 36.65u

HRESNO 63.3¢Risks 63.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.35u · HRES −63.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	14.0%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	8.5%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.2%	1.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.5%	32.3%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	0.0%	3.9%	3.5%	—	4.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	33.0%	53.0%	8.4%	—	6.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	42.9%	39.0%	5.7%	—	8.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	2.1%	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	37.7%	11.6%	26.5%	—	4.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	20.1%	34.2%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	13.1%	37.1%	17.2%	—	15.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	29.4%	50.9%	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	29.7%	47.2%	16.0%	—	19.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	21.7%	40.6%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	13.1%	45.1%	14.7%	—	17.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	12.4%	47.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	10.3%	54.1%	5.2%	0.2%	11.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	1.7%	46.8%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	2.8%	46.7%	8.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	21.4%	46.6%	0.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	15.3%	43.0%	7.6%	68.0%	6.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	25.3%	38.1%	5.5%	—	4.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	30.9%	42.6%	9.5%	68.0%	7.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	31.4%	46.1%	7.2%	—	4.9%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	28.4%	46.0%	5.3%	70.5%	1.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	16.4%	45.8%	12.4%	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	40.0%	33.1%	6.3%	78.8%	10.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	16.2%	35.2%	4.1%	—	4.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	17.1%	37.6%	10.2%	54.7%	4.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	30.9%	28.1%	14.1%	—	33.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	90.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	90.0°F	7.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	90.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	20%	87.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	87.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	87.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗