KBNA / Wed Oct 14 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

46%

20%

19%

18%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.7¢Risks 36.65u

HRESNO 63.3¢Risks 63.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.35u · HRES −63.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:44:48+00:00	54.3%	15.9%	51.1%	40.5%	44.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	54.3%	15.9%	51.1%	40.5%	44.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	54.3%	15.9%	58.5%	40.5%	44.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	54.3%	15.9%	58.5%	40.5%	44.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	54.3%	15.9%	58.5%	40.5%	44.2%
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00	54.6%	15.9%	58.5%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	54.6%	15.9%	58.5%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	54.6%	15.9%	58.5%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	54.6%	15.9%	58.5%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T10:33:44+00:00	54.6%	15.9%	58.5%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	54.6%	19.8%	55.9%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	54.6%	19.8%	55.9%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	54.6%	19.8%	55.9%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	50.9%	19.8%	55.9%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	50.9%	20.4%	55.9%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	55.9%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	55.9%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	55.9%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	52.4%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	52.4%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	50.9%	20.7%	52.4%	35.2%	44.2%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	51.9%	20.7%	52.4%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	51.9%	20.7%	52.4%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	51.9%	20.7%	52.4%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	51.9%	20.7%	52.4%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	51.9%	20.7%	52.4%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	51.9%	17.1%	53.5%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	51.9%	17.1%	53.5%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	51.9%	17.1%	53.5%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	59.2%	17.1%	53.5%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	59.2%	17.1%	53.5%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	59.2%	17.1%	53.5%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	59.2%	17.1%	53.5%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	59.2%	17.1%	53.5%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	59.2%	17.1%	65.0%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	59.2%	17.1%	65.0%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	59.2%	17.1%	65.0%	27.3%	14.4%
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	58.7%	17.1%	65.0%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	58.7%	17.1%	65.0%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	58.7%	17.1%	65.0%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	58.7%	17.1%	65.0%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	58.7%	17.1%	65.0%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	58.7%	17.1%	58.9%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	58.7%	14.5%	58.9%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	58.7%	14.5%	58.9%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	58.7%	14.5%	58.9%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	57.7%	15.0%	57.6%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	57.7%	15.0%	57.6%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	57.7%	15.3%	57.6%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	57.7%	15.3%	50.0%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	57.7%	15.3%	50.0%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	57.7%	15.3%	50.0%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	57.7%	15.3%	50.0%	29.6%	2.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	54.9%	15.3%	50.0%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	54.9%	15.3%	50.0%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	54.9%	15.3%	50.0%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	54.9%	15.3%	50.0%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	54.9%	15.3%	47.4%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	54.9%	15.3%	47.4%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	54.9%	15.3%	47.4%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	54.9%	13.8%	47.4%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	52.9%	13.8%	47.4%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	52.9%	13.8%	47.4%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	52.9%	13.8%	47.4%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:44+00:00	52.9%	13.8%	47.4%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	52.9%	13.8%	62.6%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	52.9%	13.8%	62.6%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	52.9%	13.8%	62.6%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	52.9%	13.8%	62.6%	12.1%	14.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:14+00:00	50.0%	13.8%	62.6%	18.1%	21.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	50.0%	13.8%	62.6%	18.1%	21.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	50.0%	13.8%	62.6%	18.1%	21.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	50.0%	13.8%	62.6%	18.1%	21.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	50.0%	18.2%	43.2%	18.1%	21.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	50.0%	18.2%	43.2%	18.1%	21.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	50.0%	18.2%	43.2%	18.1%	21.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	50.0%	18.2%	43.2%	18.1%	21.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	53.0%	18.2%	43.2%	18.1%	21.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	53.0%	18.2%	43.2%	18.1%	21.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	60.9%	19.2%	45.9%	18.1%	20.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	60.9%	19.2%	45.9%	18.1%	20.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	60.9%	19.2%	45.9%	18.1%	20.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	60.9%	19.2%	45.9%	18.1%	20.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	60.9%	19.2%	45.9%	18.1%	20.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00	60.9%	19.2%	45.9%	18.1%	20.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	55.2%	19.2%	45.9%	18.1%	20.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	55.2%	19.2%	45.9%	18.1%	20.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	55.2%	19.2%	45.9%	18.1%	20.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	55.2%	19.2%	45.9%	18.1%	20.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	90.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	90.0°F	7.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	90.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	20%	87.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	87.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	87.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261014-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Wed Oct 14

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗