KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

92%

92%

90%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 94.0¢Risks 23.51u

HRESNO 5.9¢Risks 1.49u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.49u · HRES −1.49u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	5.9%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	50.6%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	33.0%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	0.5%	74.0%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	24.1%	88.8%	16.6%	—	45.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	89.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	85.2%	86.5%	3.9%	—	41.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	88.6%	85.8%	39.4%	—	31.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	65.5%	94.5%	57.1%	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	27.0%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.8%	82.2%	81.0%	74.9%	—	62.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	63.4%	82.7%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	70.9%	75.2%	70.1%	—	68.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	76.5%	90.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	79.1%	93.9%	71.0%	—	75.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	37.9%	93.6%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	87.4%	96.2%	79.7%	—	81.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	87.6%	94.8%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	89.7%	95.1%	86.1%	—	78.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	91.2%	95.5%	—	—	81.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	96.0%	97.4%	83.1%	79.4%	86.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	96.5%	97.8%	2.6%	—	83.9%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	96.2%	98.5%	85.3%	66.9%	84.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	96.3%	98.9%	88.0%	—	88.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	98.9%	99.5%	82.6%	99.2%	91.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	99.1%	99.2%	85.0%	—	89.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	99.4%	99.5%	87.4%	95.7%	92.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	99.7%	99.3%	86.8%	—	93.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	99.8%	99.4%	92.2%	99.5%	97.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	100.0%	99.6%	64.8%	—	96.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	100.0%	99.9%	95.9%	96.9%	98.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	100.0%	99.9%	98.6%	—	99.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	99%	91.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	90.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	98%	90.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	90.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	88.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	92%	89.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	89.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗