KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 13 · 07:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

92%

92%

90%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 94.0¢Risks 23.51u

HRESNO 5.9¢Risks 1.49u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.49u · HRES −1.49u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T07:38:32+00:00	89.2%	20.0%	44.8%	78.4%	13.4%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	89.2%	20.0%	44.8%	78.4%	13.4%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	89.2%	20.0%	44.8%	78.4%	13.4%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	89.2%	20.0%	44.8%	78.4%	13.4%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	89.2%	20.0%	44.8%	78.4%	13.4%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	89.2%	54.6%	85.9%	78.4%	13.4%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	89.2%	54.6%	85.9%	78.4%	13.4%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	89.2%	54.6%	85.9%	78.4%	13.4%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	89.2%	54.6%	85.9%	78.4%	13.4%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	94.1%	54.6%	85.9%	78.4%	13.7%
2026-10-08T15:15:58+00:00	94.1%	55.2%	85.9%	78.4%	13.7%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00	94.1%	55.2%	85.9%	78.4%	13.7%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00	94.1%	55.2%	85.9%	78.4%	13.7%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00	94.1%	55.2%	85.9%	78.4%	13.7%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	94.1%	55.2%	85.9%	78.4%	13.7%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00	94.1%	55.2%	85.9%	78.4%	13.7%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00	91.1%	55.2%	85.9%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00	91.1%	55.2%	85.9%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00	91.1%	55.2%	85.9%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00	91.1%	55.2%	85.9%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	91.1%	55.2%	85.9%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	91.1%	56.5%	84.5%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00	91.1%	56.5%	84.5%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00	91.1%	56.5%	84.5%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00	17.1%	56.5%	84.5%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00	17.1%	56.5%	84.5%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T03:19:04+00:00	17.1%	56.5%	84.5%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T04:05:07+00:00	17.1%	56.5%	84.5%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T04:50:13+00:00	17.1%	56.5%	84.5%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T05:35:20+00:00	17.1%	56.5%	70.8%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T06:20:27+00:00	17.1%	56.5%	70.8%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T07:05:33+00:00	17.1%	56.5%	70.8%	83.6%	51.6%
2026-10-09T07:51:08+00:00	85.6%	56.5%	70.8%	81.9%	90.6%
2026-10-09T08:37:13+00:00	85.6%	56.5%	70.8%	81.9%	90.6%
2026-10-09T09:22:18+00:00	85.6%	56.5%	70.8%	81.9%	90.6%
2026-10-09T10:07:25+00:00	85.6%	56.5%	70.8%	81.9%	90.6%
2026-10-09T10:52:30+00:00	85.6%	56.5%	70.8%	81.9%	90.6%
2026-10-09T11:37:40+00:00	85.6%	56.5%	70.8%	81.9%	90.6%
2026-10-09T12:23:18+00:00	85.6%	61.8%	70.8%	81.9%	90.6%
2026-10-09T13:08:26+00:00	85.6%	61.8%	70.8%	81.9%	90.6%
2026-10-09T13:53:32+00:00	87.6%	61.7%	70.8%	81.9%	90.8%
2026-10-09T14:42:08+00:00	87.6%	61.7%	70.8%	81.9%	90.8%
2026-10-09T15:27:28+00:00	87.6%	61.6%	70.8%	81.9%	90.8%
2026-10-09T16:13:15+00:00	87.6%	61.6%	70.8%	81.9%	90.8%
2026-10-09T16:58:26+00:00	87.6%	61.6%	89.6%	81.9%	90.8%
2026-10-09T17:43:33+00:00	87.6%	61.6%	89.6%	81.9%	90.8%
2026-10-09T18:28:39+00:00	87.6%	61.6%	89.6%	81.9%	90.8%
2026-10-09T19:13:44+00:00	87.6%	61.6%	89.6%	81.9%	90.8%
2026-10-09T19:58:51+00:00	85.6%	61.6%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-09T20:44:02+00:00	85.6%	61.6%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-09T21:29:15+00:00	85.6%	61.6%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-09T22:14:37+00:00	85.6%	61.6%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-09T22:59:43+00:00	85.6%	62.4%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-09T23:44:49+00:00	85.6%	62.4%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-10T00:30:02+00:00	85.6%	62.4%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-10T01:15:15+00:00	85.6%	62.4%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-10T02:00:44+00:00	47.7%	62.4%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-10T02:46:09+00:00	47.7%	62.4%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-10T03:31:22+00:00	47.7%	62.4%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-10T04:17:05+00:00	47.7%	62.4%	89.6%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-10T05:03:05+00:00	47.7%	62.4%	67.9%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-10T05:48:14+00:00	47.7%	62.4%	67.9%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-10T06:33:21+00:00	47.7%	62.4%	67.9%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-10T07:18:26+00:00	47.7%	62.4%	67.9%	54.8%	92.2%
2026-10-10T08:03:33+00:00	91.8%	62.4%	67.9%	54.8%	78.0%
2026-10-10T08:48:40+00:00	91.8%	62.4%	67.9%	54.8%	78.0%
2026-10-10T09:33:45+00:00	91.8%	62.4%	67.9%	54.8%	78.0%
2026-10-10T10:18:58+00:00	91.8%	62.4%	67.9%	54.8%	78.0%
2026-10-10T11:04:05+00:00	91.8%	81.4%	67.9%	54.8%	78.0%
2026-10-10T11:49:14+00:00	91.8%	81.4%	67.9%	54.8%	78.0%
2026-10-10T12:34:20+00:00	91.8%	81.4%	67.9%	54.8%	78.0%
2026-10-10T13:19:26+00:00	91.8%	81.4%	67.9%	54.8%	78.0%
2026-10-10T14:04:56+00:00	88.2%	81.1%	67.9%	54.8%	78.3%
2026-10-10T14:53:51+00:00	88.2%	81.1%	67.9%	54.8%	78.3%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00	88.2%	81.1%	67.9%	54.8%	78.3%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00	88.2%	81.1%	67.9%	54.8%	78.3%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00	88.2%	81.1%	93.4%	54.8%	78.3%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00	88.2%	81.1%	93.4%	54.8%	78.3%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00	88.2%	81.1%	93.4%	54.8%	78.3%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00	91.8%	81.1%	93.4%	54.8%	88.3%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00	91.8%	81.1%	93.4%	54.8%	88.3%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00	91.8%	81.1%	93.4%	54.8%	88.3%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00	91.8%	81.1%	93.4%	54.8%	88.3%
2026-10-10T22:27:13+00:00	91.8%	81.1%	93.4%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	91.8%	81.1%	95.8%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	91.8%	81.1%	95.8%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	91.8%	81.1%	95.8%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	86.1%	81.1%	95.8%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:12+00:00	86.1%	81.1%	95.8%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	86.1%	81.1%	95.8%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-11T03:44:49+00:00	86.1%	81.1%	95.8%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	86.1%	81.1%	95.8%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	86.1%	81.1%	93.4%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	86.1%	81.1%	93.4%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	86.1%	81.1%	93.4%	85.5%	88.3%
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00	92.1%	81.1%	93.4%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	92.1%	81.1%	93.4%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	92.1%	81.1%	93.4%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	92.1%	81.1%	93.4%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:00	92.1%	81.1%	93.4%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	92.1%	96.8%	97.8%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	92.1%	96.8%	97.8%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	92.1%	96.8%	97.8%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	84.1%	96.8%	97.8%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	84.1%	96.8%	97.8%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T15:11:31+00:00	84.1%	96.8%	97.8%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	84.1%	96.8%	97.8%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	84.1%	96.8%	97.8%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	84.1%	96.8%	96.4%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T18:13:09+00:00	84.1%	96.8%	96.4%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	84.1%	96.8%	96.4%	84.6%	88.3%
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	87.1%	96.8%	96.4%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	87.1%	96.8%	96.4%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	87.1%	96.8%	96.4%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	87.1%	96.8%	96.4%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:12+00:00	87.1%	96.8%	96.4%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	87.1%	93.3%	97.8%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	87.1%	93.3%	97.8%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:12+00:00	87.1%	93.3%	97.8%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:20+00:00	93.6%	93.3%	97.8%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	93.6%	93.3%	97.8%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	93.6%	93.3%	97.8%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-12T04:01:18+00:00	93.6%	93.3%	97.8%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	93.6%	93.3%	97.8%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	93.6%	93.3%	98.6%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00	93.6%	93.3%	98.6%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00	93.6%	93.3%	98.6%	86.4%	85.6%
2026-10-12T07:48:09+00:00	94.5%	93.3%	98.6%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	94.5%	93.3%	98.6%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	94.5%	93.3%	98.6%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	94.5%	93.3%	98.6%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	94.5%	93.3%	98.6%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	94.5%	93.3%	98.4%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	94.5%	94.8%	98.4%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	94.5%	94.8%	98.4%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	95.7%	94.8%	98.4%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	95.7%	94.7%	98.4%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	95.7%	94.7%	98.4%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	95.7%	93.5%	98.4%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	95.7%	93.5%	98.6%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	95.7%	93.5%	98.6%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	95.7%	93.5%	98.6%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	95.7%	93.5%	98.6%	93.6%	91.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	96.1%	93.5%	98.6%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	96.1%	93.5%	98.6%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	96.1%	93.5%	98.6%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	96.1%	93.5%	98.6%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	96.1%	93.5%	97.5%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	96.1%	93.5%	97.5%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	96.1%	93.5%	97.5%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	96.1%	92.5%	97.5%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	95.0%	92.5%	97.5%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	95.0%	92.5%	97.5%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	95.0%	92.5%	97.5%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-13T04:15:44+00:00	95.0%	92.5%	97.5%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	95.0%	92.5%	97.8%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	95.0%	92.5%	97.8%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	95.0%	92.5%	97.8%	90.3%	92.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	95.0%	92.5%	97.8%	90.3%	92.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	99%	91.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	90.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
National Blend	98%	90.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	90.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	88.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	92%	89.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	89.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗