KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

77%

75%

66%

64%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.2¢Risks 76.15u

AIFSNO 23.8¢Risks 23.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.85u · AIFS −23.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	2.3%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	32.4%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	17.6%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	0.1%	55.4%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	10.9%	75.4%	6.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	69.0%	70.9%	1.0%	—	22.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	73.6%	69.1%	20.0%	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	42.1%	84.1%	33.7%	—	23.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	11.0%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	61.5%	59.9%	51.7%	—	37.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	38.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	45.6%	50.9%	44.8%	—	43.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	51.8%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	54.6%	80.4%	44.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	15.4%	79.0%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	66.1%	85.3%	53.9%	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	65.6%	81.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	68.8%	81.0%	62.2%	—	51.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	71.2%	81.7%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	82.4%	86.9%	55.5%	50.0%	60.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	83.2%	87.7%	0.3%	—	55.6%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	81.7%	90.0%	57.0%	33.1%	55.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	80.9%	91.8%	60.7%	—	60.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	91.0%	94.8%	50.0%	92.9%	66.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	91.8%	92.3%	52.6%	—	60.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	93.5%	93.9%	55.4%	76.0%	65.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	96.0%	92.4%	52.8%	—	68.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	96.8%	92.2%	62.8%	93.2%	78.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	98.7%	94.0%	22.4%	—	75.2%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	98.9%	96.6%	71.0%	75.0%	80.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	99.3%	97.7%	83.0%	—	87.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	91.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	88.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	75%	90.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	88.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	88.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	88.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗