KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

77%

75%

66%

64%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.2¢Risks 76.15u

AIFSNO 23.8¢Risks 23.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.85u · AIFS −23.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T03:44:49+00:00	68.1%	56.6%	83.9%	70.5%	75.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:44+00:00	68.1%	56.6%	83.9%	70.5%	75.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:02+00:00	68.1%	56.6%	77.9%	70.5%	75.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:15+00:00	68.1%	56.6%	77.9%	70.5%	75.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	68.1%	56.6%	77.9%	70.5%	75.2%
2026-10-11T07:31:55+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	77.9%	66.3%	75.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	77.9%	66.3%	75.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:08+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	77.9%	66.3%	75.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	77.9%	66.3%	75.2%
2026-10-11T10:33:45+00:00	77.7%	56.6%	77.9%	66.3%	75.2%
2026-10-11T11:19:48+00:00	77.7%	77.1%	88.7%	66.3%	75.2%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	77.7%	77.1%	88.7%	66.3%	75.2%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	77.7%	77.1%	88.7%	66.3%	75.2%
2026-10-11T13:35:44+00:00	63.6%	77.1%	88.7%	66.3%	75.2%
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	63.6%	77.1%	88.7%	66.3%	75.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	91.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	88.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	75%	90.5°F	5.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	88.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	88.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	88.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 11 · 03:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗