KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

74%

56%

53%

45%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.3¢Risks 65.35u

EPSNO 34.7¢Risks 34.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.65u · EPS −34.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	17.6%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	7.8%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	0.0%	35.5%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	3.9%	56.3%	2.1%	—	12.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	47.8%	50.0%	0.2%	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	52.3%	46.9%	7.8%	—	5.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	21.2%	65.5%	15.4%	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	3.3%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	36.9%	35.3%	27.9%	—	17.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	17.3%	36.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	22.1%	26.2%	21.4%	—	20.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	26.4%	48.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	28.2%	56.4%	20.3%	—	24.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	4.2%	53.8%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	37.6%	62.4%	26.3%	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	36.3%	55.0%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	38.8%	54.1%	32.1%	—	22.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	40.6%	54.2%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	54.4%	61.8%	24.7%	20.6%	29.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	54.5%	62.2%	0.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	51.2%	65.9%	24.2%	9.4%	23.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	48.8%	68.5%	26.3%	—	26.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	65.8%	75.4%	17.4%	70.2%	30.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	66.3%	67.5%	18.2%	—	23.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	69.3%	70.5%	19.1%	38.1%	27.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	75.8%	65.0%	16.4%	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	77.8%	62.8%	22.2%	65.5%	38.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	86.4%	66.2%	2.9%	—	32.5%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	86.6%	73.7%	26.3%	30.3%	37.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	88.5%	77.2%	38.6%	—	46.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	92.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	75%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	92.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	90.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	53%	89.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	89.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗