KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

66%

46%

42%

33%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

EPSNO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.20u · EPS −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	13.9%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	5.7%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	29.4%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	2.6%	49.3%	1.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	40.6%	42.7%	0.1%	—	6.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	44.7%	39.4%	5.4%	—	3.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	15.9%	57.9%	11.1%	—	6.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	2.0%	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	29.3%	27.9%	21.3%	—	12.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	12.3%	28.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	16.1%	19.6%	15.6%	—	14.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	19.6%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	20.9%	47.2%	14.4%	—	17.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	2.4%	44.3%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	28.7%	52.9%	19.0%	—	20.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	27.4%	45.0%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	29.4%	43.9%	23.5%	—	15.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	30.7%	43.7%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	43.5%	51.1%	16.9%	13.7%	20.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	43.3%	51.1%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	39.6%	54.6%	16.0%	5.4%	15.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	37.0%	57.2%	17.5%	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	53.7%	64.6%	10.6%	58.7%	20.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	53.9%	55.1%	10.9%	—	15.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	56.7%	58.0%	11.3%	26.2%	17.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	63.7%	51.4%	9.2%	—	18.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	65.5%	48.5%	13.0%	51.4%	25.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	76.4%	51.5%	1.1%	—	20.2%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	76.2%	59.4%	15.2%	18.1%	23.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	78.5%	63.0%	24.1%	—	30.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	92.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	92.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	90.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	42%	89.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	89.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗