KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

66%

46%

42%

33%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

EPSNO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.20u · EPS −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:52+00:00	53.7%	24.4%	52.4%	48.2%	34.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	53.7%	22.9%	52.4%	48.2%	34.3%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	53.7%	22.9%	54.7%	48.2%	34.3%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	53.7%	22.9%	54.7%	48.2%	34.3%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	53.7%	22.9%	54.7%	48.2%	34.3%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	53.7%	22.9%	54.7%	48.2%	34.3%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	55.5%	22.9%	54.7%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	55.5%	22.9%	54.7%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	55.5%	22.9%	54.7%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	55.5%	22.9%	54.7%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	55.5%	22.9%	45.3%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	55.5%	22.9%	45.3%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	55.5%	22.9%	45.3%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	55.5%	22.7%	45.3%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	50.9%	22.7%	45.3%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	50.9%	22.7%	45.3%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	50.9%	22.7%	45.3%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:44+00:00	50.9%	22.7%	45.3%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	50.9%	22.7%	47.6%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	50.9%	22.7%	47.6%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	50.9%	22.7%	47.6%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	50.9%	22.7%	47.6%	39.4%	36.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:14+00:00	43.2%	22.7%	47.6%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	43.2%	22.7%	47.6%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	43.2%	22.7%	47.6%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	43.2%	22.7%	47.6%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	43.2%	25.4%	39.8%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	43.2%	25.4%	39.8%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	43.2%	25.4%	39.8%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	43.2%	25.4%	39.8%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	50.0%	25.4%	39.8%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	50.0%	25.4%	39.8%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	50.0%	25.4%	39.8%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	50.0%	25.4%	39.8%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	50.0%	25.4%	28.1%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	50.0%	25.4%	28.1%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	50.0%	25.4%	28.1%	51.0%	40.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	52.9%	25.4%	28.1%	51.0%	36.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	52.9%	25.4%	28.1%	51.0%	36.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	52.9%	25.4%	28.1%	51.0%	36.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:13+00:00	52.9%	25.4%	28.1%	51.0%	36.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	52.9%	25.4%	28.1%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	52.9%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	52.9%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	52.9%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	60.6%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	60.6%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	60.6%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	60.6%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	60.6%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	60.6%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	60.6%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00	60.6%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	36.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	64.7%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	39.9%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	64.7%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	39.9%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	64.7%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	39.9%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	64.7%	27.3%	37.4%	42.3%	39.9%
2026-10-14T10:32:42+00:00	64.7%	27.3%	37.4%	43.6%	39.9%
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	64.7%	30.9%	55.4%	43.6%	39.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	64.7%	30.9%	55.4%	43.6%	39.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	64.7%	30.9%	55.4%	43.6%	39.9%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	63.8%	30.9%	55.4%	43.6%	39.9%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	63.8%	31.0%	55.4%	43.6%	39.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	65.7%	33.2%	56.8%	45.7%	42.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	65.7%	33.2%	56.8%	45.7%	42.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	65.7%	33.2%	76.4%	45.7%	42.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	65.7%	33.2%	76.4%	45.7%	42.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	65.7%	33.2%	76.4%	45.7%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	92.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	92.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	90.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	42%	89.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	89.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗