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KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 16 · 12:42 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
WN2
>99%
ICON
>99%
AIFS
96%
HRES
90%
Consensus
97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 95.1¢Risks 23.78u
VS
HRESNO 4.9¢Risks 1.22u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.22u · HRES −1.22u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 100.0% · 2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.8% · 2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00IFS HRES: 71.2% · 2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00IFS HRES: 90.2% · 2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00IFS HRES: 90.2% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00IFS HRES: 90.2% · 2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00ICON: 99.5% · 2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00ICON: 99.5% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00ICON: 99.5% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00ICON: 99.5% · 2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00ICON: 99.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00ICON: 99.5% · 2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00ICON: 99.6% · 2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:00ICON: 99.6% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00ICON: 99.6% · 2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:0010-14 02:5910-14 06:0010-16 12:42
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:0087.3%100.0%99.0%71.2%99.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:0087.3%100.0%99.0%71.2%99.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:0087.3%100.0%99.0%71.2%99.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:0087.3%100.0%99.0%71.2%99.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:0087.3%100.0%99.0%71.2%99.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:0087.3%100.0%99.0%71.2%99.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:14+00:0096.1%100.0%99.8%90.2%99.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:0096.1%100.0%99.8%90.2%99.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:0096.1%100.0%99.8%90.2%99.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%81.0°F2.9°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2>99%77.8°F2.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
ICON>99%79.9°F3.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single96%75.9°F3.1°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES90%75.3°F3.7°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
NWS forecast59%71.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 02:00Pending
National Blend25%69.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗