KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

>99%

96%

90%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 95.1¢Risks 23.78u

HRESNO 4.9¢Risks 1.22u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.22u · HRES −1.22u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	91.0%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	99.4%	—	—	84.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	99.9%	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	93.6%	97.5%	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	98.8%	97.4%	87.4%	—	90.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	93.6%	99.6%	99.7%	—	88.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	95.2%	94.2%	99.9%	—	88.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	98.8%	97.6%	95.0%	—	88.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	99.0%	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	96.7%	98.2%	95.7%	—	87.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	97.0%	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	99.1%	99.2%	93.5%	—	89.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	98.2%	98.9%	—	—	75.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	99.5%	98.9%	96.4%	—	81.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	99.4%	98.9%	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	99.7%	99.6%	97.0%	—	83.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	99.7%	99.8%	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	99.3%	99.9%	96.5%	—	81.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	99.7%	99.9%	—	—	85.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	99.9%	100.0%	85.1%	—	93.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	99.9%	100.0%	84.6%	—	92.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	100.0%	100.0%	84.0%	99.9%	84.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	100.0%	100.0%	88.0%	—	82.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	100.0%	100.0%	90.0%	100.0%	93.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	100.0%	100.0%	85.7%	—	94.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	100.0%	100.0%	88.0%	100.0%	93.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	100.0%	100.0%	92.9%	—	95.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	100.0%	100.0%	92.2%	100.0%	97.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	92.0%	97.6%	88.0%	—	75.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	66.8%	53.2%	37.6%	59.4%	57.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	81.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	77.8°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	>99%	79.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	75.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗