KBNA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

80%

66%

63%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 81.5¢Risks 81.45u

AIFSNO 18.6¢Risks 18.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +18.55u · AIFS −18.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	77.3%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	96.8%	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	99.1%	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	80.2%	90.1%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	94.0%	89.1%	67.0%	—	72.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	78.5%	97.3%	98.0%	—	68.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	94.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	81.6%	78.9%	99.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	92.8%	88.1%	80.0%	—	66.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	93.5%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	84.3%	89.5%	81.0%	—	62.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	84.8%	89.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	93.2%	93.8%	73.8%	—	64.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	88.4%	91.9%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	95.0%	91.4%	81.0%	—	48.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	93.9%	90.8%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	95.8%	95.4%	81.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	95.6%	97.0%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	92.2%	97.5%	78.1%	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	95.5%	98.0%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	97.4%	99.0%	47.8%	—	65.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	98.3%	98.5%	45.5%	—	61.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	98.6%	99.0%	43.0%	96.7%	43.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	99.2%	98.3%	48.8%	—	39.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	99.5%	98.7%	51.2%	99.5%	61.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	99.7%	99.2%	41.0%	—	60.2%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	99.7%	99.5%	43.3%	97.8%	56.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	99.8%	99.5%	52.8%	—	61.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	99.7%	99.6%	48.5%	99.6%	66.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	45.5%	67.5%	36.6%	—	20.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.5%	6.6%	2.9%	8.9%	8.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	89.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	98%	81.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	76.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	75.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261016-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗